The head of the United Nations Development Programme said the war in Iran is set to reverse recent gains against poverty for tens of millions, as interruptions to fuel and fertiliser flows hit farmers at planting time and knock-on effects ripple through the global economy.
U.N. development chief Alexander De Croo said that more than 30 million people will be pushed back into poverty as a direct result of the conflict and its immediate impacts on essential agricultural inputs and energy supplies. He singled out fertiliser shortages that have been aggravated by cargo vessels being blocked in the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint through which roughly one-third of the world’s fertiliser supplies transit - and said those shortages have already lowered agricultural productivity.
Those reductions in productivity are likely to translate into weaker crop yields later in the year, De Croo warned, noting the timing is particularly damaging because farmers are currently planting. "Food insecurity will be at its peak level in a few months - and there is not much that you can do about it," he said. He added: "Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects, you already have them, and they will be pushing back more than 30 million people into poverty."
De Croo also pointed to the broader economic hit the crisis has already inflicted. He estimated that the cascade of disruptions has wiped out an estimated 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP. "Things that take decades to build up, it takes eight weeks of war to destroy them," he said, framing the damage as rapid and deep despite its concentrated origin in the region.
The U.N. chief linked the conflict to additional pressures including energy shortages and falling remittances that further squeeze vulnerable households. He said the humanitarian system is being stretched at a time when needs are rising and funding is shrinking, increasing the likelihood that some populations currently dependent on assistance will not receive it. "We will have to say to certain people, really sorry, but we can’t help you," he said. "People who would be surviving on help will not have this and will be pushed into even greater vulnerability."
International financial and food agencies have already flagged similar concerns. Earlier this month, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the U.N. World Food Programme warned that the war will drive up food prices, further burdening the world’s most vulnerable populations.
De Croo’s remarks tied the immediate disruptions to three interlocking problems: reduced access to fertilisers and fuel, constrained shipping through a key maritime corridor, and weakening humanitarian capacity as resources are spread thinner across multiple emergencies. He pointed to places already facing severe crises - including Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine - as contexts where rising needs and diminished funding compound the challenge.
The U.N. development chief’s assessment underscores how a regional conflict can have rapid global consequences for food production, economic output and humanitarian response - with effects that, he said, may not be reversible even if hostilities end quickly.