ZOETERMEER, the Netherlands, April 23 - The Netherlands is encountering what its domestic intelligence service describes as the most significant threat to national security since the end of World War Two, with Russia and China identified as the principal external sources of pressure, the AIVD said on Thursday.
Presenting the agency’s annual report, AIVD director Simone Smit framed the current environment as unusually fraught.
"In the 80 years of our existence, we have not seen a threat level like the current one, where national security has been put under pressure from so many sides at once, for such a long time,"Smit said, adding that the global context has shifted.
"We see an unstable and unpredictable world order, after decades where stability and predictability were the foundation of prosperity and peace."
The agency again pointed to Russia and China as the foremost external threats to the Netherlands. It said Russia has escalated its aggressiveness toward Western countries, including the Netherlands, particularly by mounting cyber attacks.
The AIVD warned that Moscow appears to be preparing for an extended confrontation with Western states. In its assessment,
"Russia is preparing for a long confrontation with the West,"and
"As a consequence, a military conflict between Russia and the West is no longer unthinkable."
The AIVD also reported Russia’s public posture: Moscow denies any plans to attack NATO countries and characterizes what it calls the "collective West" as a threat to its national security, pointing particularly to the financial and military aid provided to Ukraine.
Regarding China, the agency said Beijing continues efforts it deems illegal to obtain advanced technological know-how as part of a broader strategy to "reshape the world order .. to better serve its own interests". The AIVD reiterated that it has long identified China as the largest threat to Dutch economic security, and said that this threat had deepened in 2025.
China, for its part, denies acting illegally in pursuit of its economic objectives and rejects the characterization of posing a threat to Western countries.
On the domestic front, the AIVD highlighted that jihadist and far-right groups present the main security challenges within the Netherlands. The agency reported a worrying trend of these groups gaining popularity among some segments of young people.
The AIVD’s findings underline a multifaceted risk environment: external pressure via cyber and economic vectors, the possibility of prolonged geopolitical confrontation, and internal radicalization trends. The agency’s annual report frames these elements as creating sustained and simultaneous pressures on Dutch national security.
Summary
The AIVD says the Netherlands faces its most serious national security threat since World War Two, driven largely by Russia and China, alongside domestic risks from jihadist and far-right movements. The agency points to increased cyber activity, attempts by China to acquire advanced technology, and an unpredictable global order as central concerns.