Goldman Sachs reiterated on Tuesday that it expects the copper price to average $12,650 per metric ton this year and maintained its estimate of a 490,000-ton surplus for 2026. The firm also highlighted a specific supply-side vulnerability that could alter the market balance if certain disruptions persist.
The bank pointed to potential shortages of sulphuric acid as a key risk. Sulphur and sulphuric acid are essential for the solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) process, which Goldman says accounts for 17% of global copper supply. The bank warned that interruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - combined with China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports from May 1 - could tighten availability of these inputs and pressure copper production.
Goldman identified the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile as the jurisdictions most exposed to interruptions in sulphur flows. In the DRC, the bank noted that mining companies currently hold inventories covering about two to three months of acid supply. But Goldman estimated that if supply-chain delays extend beyond late May into June, the DRC could curtail roughly 125,000 tons of copper production in 2026.
Goldman also said that the 125,000-ton potential curtailment in the DRC would be offset, in its adverse scenario, by a 140,000-ton reduction in copper demand stemming from weaker global growth. That offset preserves the net balance projected under that scenario, according to the bank.
China’s export ban on sulphuric acid, if it remains in place through the year, would put an estimated 200,000 tons of Chilean production at risk. Goldman quantified that risk as equivalent to about 1% of global copper supply, noting that Chile sourced roughly a third of its sulphuric acid from China in 2025.
Goldman also linked the supply uncertainty to broader regional tensions. The bank pointed to disruptions caused by what it described as the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, saying Iran has effectively blocked the key Strait of Hormuz shipping artery and that the conflict has affected supplies of energy goods and other materials. The article quoted President Donald Trump as saying on Tuesday he did not want to extend the current ceasefire and that the U.S. military was "raring to go" if negotiations were not successful.
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Clear summary
Goldman Sachs is keeping its copper price and 2026 surplus forecasts unchanged but warns that sulphuric acid shortages - driven by Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and China’s export ban - could force production cuts in the DRC and Chile, materially affecting segments of global copper output.