Introduction
Wolfe Research has opened coverage of SpaceX stock (SPCX) with a price target of $175, releasing its assessment as the company's shares began trading following the largest IPO on record. The stock rose sharply on debut, closing about 19% higher near $161. Wolfe's valuation sits above that debut level, driven by its view that SpaceX has materially reduced the cost of orbital launches and that the company stands to capture unusually large market advantages as a result.
A structural cost advantage
At the center of Wolfe's case is the argument that SpaceX has effectively driven internal launch costs toward zero. The research note describes this development as creating - in Wolfe's words - one of the widest moats in history, a position the firm expects will enable 70% top-line growth and roughly double EBITDA margins by 2030. Wolfe also adds that this acceleration in economics "should just be getting started."
"SpaceX turned a competitive moat into an ocean of opportunity that we don't see others crossing. Bringing (internal) cost of launch to near-zero alongside a willingness to push boundaries of scale support out-of-this-world near-term valuation," Wolfe Research stated in a note.
How the cost curve was broken
Wolfe attributes the shift to reusability. The analysts point to the Falcon 9 as the initiator of that transformation and to Starship as the vehicle capable of taking the economics substantially further. Under Falcon 9 operations, only the first stage is recoverable; the upper stage is expended each flight, which Wolfe notes carries a cost of about $8-$10 million per mission. By contrast, Starship is designed for full reusability - both stages recoverable - and engineered for quick turnarounds.
Using Wolfe's estimates, the incremental cost of a Falcon 9 launch is about $14 million for roughly 20 tonnes of payload. Full reusability with Starship, by Wolfe's reckoning, would reduce that incremental cost to under $3-5 million for launches carrying more than 100 tonnes. The firm further observes that the theoretical floor on per-flight cost is set by fuel at roughly $1 million per flight.
Starlink and the connectivity angle
Beyond launch economics, Wolfe highlights SpaceX's position in the terrestrial broadband and wireless market through Starlink. The firm labels Starlink an "economic winner" and points to a 2024 inflection in which Starlink's EBITDA less capital expenditures turned positive. Wolfe projects an aggressive earnings pathway for connectivity: more than $90 billion in EBITDA and over $70 billion in EBITDA less capex by 2030, alongside a twelve-fold expansion in capacity.
Valuation implications
Wolfe views the combined dynamics of near-zero internal launch costs and a growing, profitable connectivity business as supporting its above-market price target. The research note forecasts 70% top-line growth and a near doubling of EBITDA margins by 2030, driven by lower incremental launch costs from Starship and rapid scaling of Starlink's subscriber base and capacity.
Market reaction and context
Shares of SPCX opened public trading on Friday and closed the day up roughly 19% at nearly $161, while Wolfe's $175 target implies additional upside from those levels. The analysts characterize the company's reusability progress as a structural advantage that competitors will struggle to match.
Conclusion
Wolfe Research's initiation frames SpaceX as a company that has fundamentally altered launch economics via reusability and that has reached a key commercial turning point with Starlink. The firm's forecasts are premised on Starship delivering full, rapid reusability and on Starlink expanding capacity and profitability toward the levels described in the note.