South32 has reduced its full-year production expectation for its Australia manganese business, citing heavy wet-season rainfall and operational interruptions caused by Tropical Cyclone Narelle. The miner now anticipates fiscal 2026 production from the unit to be 3 million wet metric tons (wmt), a reduction of just over 6% from its earlier guidance.
The company said the March quarter saw stronger contributions from the Australian manganese unit, with production of 589,000 wmt. That marks a material increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, when the primary concentrator at the site was paused and no output was recorded because stockpiles had been accumulated ahead of the wet season.
In March, operations at the Gemco manganese mine in the Northern Territory were temporarily suspended and non-essential staff were evacuated after Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which led to disruption of normal activities at the site. South32 pointed to the combined effect of seasonal rainfall and the cyclone as the drivers for the downward revision to its Australia manganese outlook.
South Africa's manganese operations produced 500,000 wmt in the March quarter, up from 476,000 wmt in the prior-year period. That increase occurred despite scheduled maintenance activities at the South African operation during the quarter.
Together, production from South32's Australian and South African manganese operations amounted to 1.09 million wmt for the March quarter, up from 476,000 wmt a year earlier but below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 1.25 million wmt.
Context and implications
The company attributes the lowered Australia manganese guidance to weather-related interruptions and cyclone effects that curtailed operations at Gemco in March. While quarterly output from Australia rebounded from a year earlier pause, the combined regional volumes did not meet the consensus forecast.
South Africa's manganese production rose modestly year-on-year, even with scheduled maintenance reducing near-term capacity. The net result for the quarter was a recovery in overall manganese tonnage versus the prior year but a shortfall relative to market expectations.
Bottom line
South32's updated forecast reflects operational vulnerability to seasonal weather and extreme events. March-quarter figures show progress from the prior year in both Australia and South Africa, but the group-wide manganese output fell short of analyst consensus.