Stock Markets June 16, 2026 05:11 AM

Morgan Stanley Upgrade and Buyback Support Lift Ferrari Shares

Analyst re-rating, ongoing repurchases and a risk-on market combine to nudge RACE higher ahead of July earnings

By Maya Rios
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RACE

Ferrari shares rose modestly after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its price target to EUR 380, while the automaker's active buyback program and a favorable global risk-on market tone provided additional support. With the next earnings release not due until July 30, 2026, analyst sentiment is the primary near-term influence on the stock.

Morgan Stanley Upgrade and Buyback Support Lift Ferrari Shares
RACE
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Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Ferrari to Overweight from Equalweight and raised its price target to EUR 380 from EUR 330, implying roughly 24% upside from recent levels - impacts the equity/luxury auto sector and analyst-driven market activity.
  • Ferrari is executing the second 250 million tranche of a 3.5 billion buyback program and has repurchased over 1.3 million shares since January 2026, providing structural support to the stock - relevant to corporate finance and capital allocation considerations.
  • A risk-on shift in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 up 1.65% and the Nasdaq up 3.1% during the session, helped lift European markets including Milan, giving additional momentum to Ferrari shares - relevant to broader equity markets and investor sentiment.

Ferrari NV shares ticked up 0.4% to trade at 320.75 during the session, driven primarily by a Morgan Stanley upgrade that raised its rating on the stock to Overweight from Equalweight and pushed the price target to EUR 380 from EUR 330. The bank's new target implies roughly 24% upside from recent trading levels.

In presenting its rationale, Morgan Stanley highlighted that Ferrari's roughly 26% decline in share price over the past year has been driven mainly by a multiple de-rating - a valuation contraction rather than a commensurate decline in forecast earnings. The bank's revisions trimmed earnings-per-share estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by about 4% in total, a comparatively small adjustment that Morgan Stanley views as creating scope for a re-rating.

Complementing the analyst call, Ferrari's capital return program has continued to act as a structural floor under the equity. The company is actively repurchasing stock under the second 250 million tranche of a wider 3.5 billion multi-year buyback program, and has repurchased more than 1.3 million shares since the program began in January 2026. Management's continued repurchases, together with the absence of significant insider selling in recent months, have been cited as signals of confidence in the stock's intrinsic value.

The wider market environment also favored risk assets during the session. U.S. equities posted notable gains, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.65% and the Nasdaq rising 3.1%, creating a risk-on posture that helped lift European bourses, including the Milan exchange where Ferrari is listed. Those broader moves provided an extra tailwind for the stock.

With Ferrari's next quarterly report not scheduled until July 30, 2026, analysts' views and corporate actions such as buybacks are likely to remain the principal drivers of near-term price movement. Taken together, the Morgan Stanley upgrade, the ongoing buyback program and a supportive macro backdrop combined to produce the modest uptick in Ferrari's shares observed in today's trading.


Data points preserved: shares traded up 0.4% to 320.75; Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight from Equalweight; new price target EUR 380 from EUR 330 (about 24% upside); share decline ~26% over the last year attributed mainly to multiple de-rating; EPS revisions for FY26-27 down ~4%; buyback details - second 250 million tranche of a 3.5 billion program; more than 1.3 million shares repurchased since January 2026; no significant insider selling reported; S&P 500 +1.65% and Nasdaq +3.1% during the session; next earnings due July 30, 2026.

Risks

  • With Ferrari's next earnings report not due until July 30, 2026, near-term price movement is largely driven by analyst sentiment and corporate actions rather than fresh company results - this reliance introduces uncertainty for investors in the equity and luxury auto sector.
  • The stock's prior roughly 26% decline has been attributed to a multiple de-rating; should valuation pressures persist, the potential for a re-rating may be limited - a risk to equity performance.
  • A reversal in the current risk-on market tone that supported U.S. indices and lifted European bourses could remove a macro tailwind for Ferrari shares - a market risk affecting equities broadly.

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