Key forecast presented in Singapore
An analyst from a think tank linked to the state-backed China Mineral Resources Group outlined a set of projections at an industrial conference in Singapore, saying that by 2030 imported iron ore will make up about half of China’s total iron ore consumption. That figure is down from an estimated 80% at present, according to the analyst.
Drivers cited for the decline in import dependency
The analyst attributed the expected reduction in reliance on imported ore to two principal factors: a rise in domestic iron ore concentrate supply and a substantial increase in the use of scrap steel in production. These supply-side and recycling trends are presented as the core reasons the import share should contract through 2030.
Capacity and production projections
Specific numeric forecasts were given for 2030. China’s iron ore concentrate capacity is expected to reach around 350 million tons, while equity iron ore is projected to increase to 216 million metric tons. At the same time, China’s crude steel output is forecast to fall to about 900 million metric tons, and steel scrap output is expected to rise to 310 million metric tons.
Global context and market share
The analyst also projected changes on the global stage. China’s share of global steel output is expected to decline to 46% by 2030, down from 52% in 2025, a shift the analyst links to lower domestic consumption and therefore lower production. On a global basis, crude steel output is forecast to reach 1.93 billion metric tons by 2030, while global iron ore consumption is expected to fall to around 2.06 billion metric tons during the same period.
Implications highlighted
Those figures together indicate a rebalancing of China’s raw material sourcing and steel production mix over the coming decade, with increased domestic concentrate capacity and higher scrap usage central to the projections outlined at the Singapore conference.
Information in this article reflects the projections and statements presented by the analyst at the conference and does not introduce additional data beyond those forecasts.