As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary next month, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over four days and ending on Monday shows sizable doubt among citizens about the nation's long-term unity. Some 38% of respondents said they do not believe the United States will exist as a single country 250 years from now, while 62% said they think it will endure.
The poll documents pronounced partisan variation on that question. Among Democrats, 40% expressed skepticism about the country's survival over that timeframe. Among Republicans, 26% said they did not think the United States would last another 250 years.
Politics and the anniversary: The four-day poll took place amid a highly politicized run-up to July 4, a milestone marking 250 years since the declaration of independence. President Donald Trump has positioned himself prominently in many of the events planned to mark the anniversary. According to the poll context, Trump staged a White House cage match on his birthday on Sunday, and on Monday he said he will be the main attraction at a July 4 celebration in Washington that will also function as a political rally as Republicans seek to retain control of Congress in the November midterm elections.
The campaign framing around the anniversary is sharply contested. The survey notes that Trump has characterized his presidency as an effort to prevent America from being destroyed by Democrats. Democratic leaders, by contrast, argue that Trump poses a danger to democracy and say he is using federal law enforcement against political critics.
Perceptions of democratic risk and political violence: Two-thirds of respondents agreed with a statement that American democracy was in danger of failing. That figure includes 85% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans. The overall share saying democracy was at risk rose from 57% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll from August of last year, with the increase driven primarily by a rise in Republican concern.
The survey also found broad expectation of escalating political violence. Some 77% of respondents said it was likely that political violence would increase in the next five years.
The poll recounts other politically charged claims circulating in public debate. It states that Trump has for years asserted, without evidence, that his 2020 election loss was the product of widespread voter fraud and has advocated changes to voting laws. The poll also notes that Trump has accused Democrats and, in particular, the prior administration of Democrat Joe Biden of illegally targeting his allies, including individuals connected to the January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol. Republicans point to multiple assassination attempts against Trump as evidence that his opponents are willing to use violence.
National standing and partisan views of pride: The survey shows a decline in the share of Americans who consider the United States the greatest country in the world. Thirty percent of respondents said they viewed America as the greatest country, down from 38% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in November 2017, during President Trump’s first term.
Partisan shifts are notable. The proportion of Democrats who said America is the greatest country fell to 11% from 26% in the earlier poll. Among Republicans, roughly six in ten continued to view the country as the greatest.
Anniversary events seen as politicized; differences in how Americans will celebrate: A majority of respondents said the celebrations surrounding the 250th anniversary have become too political. That majority includes three-quarters of Democrats and half of Republicans.
The poll also captured partisan differences in plans for Independence Day activities. Some 52% of Republicans said they expected to wear red, white and blue clothing for their celebrations, compared to 20% of Democrats. Republicans were also more likely than Democrats to say they planned to attend a fireworks show, 46% to 28%.
Methodology: The online poll collected responses from 1,537 U.S. adults nationwide. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The results depict a nation deeply divided on fundamental questions about its future and on the meaning of its quarter-millennium milestone, with partisan differences shaping views on democratic durability, public safety, national pride and the commercialization of national celebrations.