Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on Italian luxury apparel group Moncler to €57 from €59, while keeping an "equal-weight" recommendation on the shares. The firm also cut its internal forecasts and signaled a cautiously positioned view that leaves it more conservative than many other analysts covering the stock.
The bank's updated target is derived from a hybrid valuation that combines a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis with a multiples-based approach. The new €57 target lies within the broader analyst range of €54 to €70, and Morgan Stanley noted its own forecasts are approximately 2% below consensus for both 2026 and 2027.
Broken down by methodology, the DCF component implies a share value of €55, using a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. The multiples-based valuation produces a €60 price, based on Moncler's historical average next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7 times and a peer-group average P/E of 24.2 times. The peer group cited by the broker includes LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Prada and Burberry.
On the operational outlook, Morgan Stanley projects Moncler brand retail sales will rise by 5% at constant exchange rates in the second quarter of 2026. The firm attributes that growth to two components: 3% from incremental selling space and 2% like-for-like growth. By comparison, Visible Alpha consensus estimates point to faster retail sales growth of 8.4% for the same period. For earnings, Morgan Stanley's 2026 per-share estimate is €2.34, versus the consensus forecast of €2.40.
The bank identified the United States as the principal medium-term opportunity for Moncler, despite the market accounting for only a minority share of sales today. According to Morgan Stanley, the U.S. represents 13% of Moncler's sales, and there is potential upside if the brand successfully appeals to American consumers.
"There could be material upside should Moncler gain traction with US consumers," the analysts said, noting plans for a flagship store in New York City scheduled to open in September 2026.
The New York location is expected to be approximately 2,000 square metres in size, which the broker says is about ten times the area of an average Moncler store. Even so, Morgan Stanley cautioned that the flagship and U.S. expansion are unlikely to have a material effect on the company's earnings before 2027-28.
European tourism patterns are another area of focus for the broker. Morgan Stanley pointed out that Moncler's European tourist customer base is skewed toward Chinese, Japanese and Korean visitors, and that tourism accounted for more than 60% of European sales in the second quarter. With indications that Asian tourist travel to Europe is lower this summer, the broker warned this trend could indirectly weigh on Moncler's results.
On the group's secondary brand, Stone Island, Morgan Stanley expects second-quarter retail sales growth of 15% at constant exchange rates, following 17% growth in the prior quarter.
At a consolidated level, the broker projects group revenues of €3.25 billion in 2026, rising to €3.46 billion in 2027 and €3.66 billion in 2028. Corresponding earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) are forecast at €951 million in 2026, €1.02 billion in 2027 and €1.09 billion in 2028.
Moncler is scheduled to release second-quarter and first-half 2026 results on July 22.