Morgan Stanley’s Global Hotel Weekly RevPAR tracker indicated clear disparities across major markets in the week ending April 18. The U.S. led the gains with a 14.6% year-over-year increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR), up sharply from the 0.4% rise recorded in the prior week.
Analysts noted that the U.S. improvement was supported by easier year-over-year comparisons - Easter fell later last year, which suppressed business travel during the comparable period. Looking at a broader window, the four-week rolling U.S. RevPAR figure stood at 4.5%, an improvement from the 3.5% average seen in the first quarter.
Europe presented a different picture. European RevPAR rose 6.2% year-over-year in the week ending April 18, a marked rebound from a 19.2% decline in the prior week. Despite the weekly uptick, the four-week rolling metric for Europe remained negative at -3.7%, versus 2.0% growth across the first quarter.
The U.K. mirrored elements of the broader European trend. U.K. RevPAR increased 6.0% year-over-year for the week ending April 18, improving from a 12.3% decline the week before. On a four-week rolling basis, U.K. RevPAR was down 2.2%, compared with 1.4% growth in the first quarter. Within the U.K., London posted a 2.1% rise in RevPAR while regional areas saw a larger increase of 7.2%.
China’s weekly performance softened: RevPAR declined 0.5% year-over-year in the week ending April 18, a deterioration from 4.3% growth in the previous week. The four-week rolling RevPAR in China was 4.1%, below the 5.0% level observed in the first quarter.
Japan continued to show strong demand on a weekly basis, with RevPAR up 17.0% year-over-year in the week ending April 18, though this represented a slowdown from a 39.1% increase in the prior week. Japan’s four-week rolling RevPAR rose 21.5%.
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Key takeaways
- U.S. weekly RevPAR surged 14.6% year-over-year for the week ending April 18, boosted by easier comparisons due to last year’s later Easter.
- Japan recorded robust weekly growth at 17.0% year-over-year and a 21.5% four-week rolling increase; Europe and the U.K. showed weekly rebounds but weaker four-week rolling trends.
- China’s weekly RevPAR slipped into negative territory at -0.5% year-over-year, with a four-week rolling figure of 4.1% that trails first-quarter levels.
Sectors impacted - hospitality, travel, and regional tourism markets are most directly affected by these RevPAR movements. Financial markets and hotel equities may respond to the evolving revenue trends and rolling averages.
Risks and uncertainties
- Timing effects: Comparisons influenced by the calendar - specifically last year’s later Easter - can materially skew week-on-week statistics, particularly for business travel-related demand.
- Rolling trend divergence: Several regions show weaker four-week rolling RevPAR versus first-quarter averages, indicating potential short-term softness despite isolated weekly gains; this introduces uncertainty for near-term revenue forecasts.
- Regional variability: Contrasting outcomes across markets (strong Japan and U.S. weekly gains versus Europe and China softness) create uneven exposure for global hotel operators and investors.