Kepler Cheuvreux has moved Italian luxury yacht maker Ferretti SpA (BIT:YACHT) from a "buy" to a "hold" recommendation, saying the stock's roughly 40% appreciation since December has largely aligned the market price with its view of the company's fundamentals. The downgrade was associated with a decline in the stock on Monday.
The brokerage left its target price unchanged at 4.10. Ferretti shares were last quoted at 3.98, reflecting around 2.9% potential upside to the target and sitting within a 52-week range of 2.52 to 4.21. The companys year-to-date absolute performance is 29.6%, and market capitalisation stands at 1.3 billion.
Estimate revisions and modelling
Kepler trimmed its adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts by 10.4% for 2026 and by 10.9% for 2027. Sales projections were reduced by 3.0% and 4.1% for the same years, respectively. The brokerage also cut adjusted EBIT estimates by 8.4% for 2026 and 9.2% for 2027.
Despite these downward revisions, Kepler said a DCF model rollover offset the weaker numbers, which is why the 4.10 target price was maintained.
Corporate governance and AGM dynamics
The rating change comes as Ferretti approaches its annual general meeting on May 14, where governance is in contention. Two slates have been lodged: one from KKCG, which the brokerage characterises as supportive of continuing current management, and another from Weichai, which did not indicate a candidate for chief executive.
Ownership at Ferretti is concentrated in those two blocs with Weichai holding approximately 39.5% of capital and KKCG about 23.2%. Kepler noted that the remainder of share ownership is highly fragmented, meaning the votes held by smaller shareholders could be decisive in the outcome. The broker indicated April 30 is likely the final date to purchase shares that would be eligible to vote at the AGM; after that point, the stock may lose some of the technical buying support it has enjoyed.
Kepler warned the stock could move "from a phase of buying support to potential overhang risk" stemming from the losing side of the boardroom contest, irrespective of the ultimate result.
Operational outlook and near-term catalysts
On the operating front, Kepler expects a soft Q1 2026 with both revenues and order intake down year-on-year. The brokerage highlighted geopolitical tensions as a factor dampening order collection, which it says is down 30% year-on-year. A fuller Q1 preview from Kepler is scheduled for release on May 15.
For fiscal 2026, Kepler projects sales of 1.20 billion, EBITDA of 193.4 million, adjusted EBIT of 122.4 million and net profit of 85 million. Free cash flow is forecast at 97.1 million, with adjusted diluted EPS of 0.25 versus a consensus of 0.30. Based on the brokers forecasts, the stock trades at 15.9 times 2026 P/E and 6.3 times EV/EBITDA.
Looking to 2027, Kepler's projections are for sales of 1.24 billion and EPS of 0.28 versus consensus of 0.33, producing a P/E of 14.3 times. For 2028, the outlook in Keplers model reports sales of 1.29 billion and EPS of 0.30 against consensus of 0.37.
Market positioning
Keplers move reflects its assessment that recent share-price appreciation has substantially reduced the stock's upside versus its fundamental valuation; at the same time, the broker's forecast downgrades indicate a more cautious view on near-term profit and sales trajectories. The shareholder contest and an expected weak Q1 act as immediate catalysts that market participants will likely monitor closely ahead of the May 14 AGM and the May 15 Q1 preview.