A new BTG Pactual/Nexus poll published on Monday indicates a statistical dead heat between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round vote for Brazil's presidency.
In the head-to-head projection, the leftist Lula is shown with 46% of the vote against 45% for the right-leaning Flavio Bolsonaro. That outcome mirrors a March survey in which the two figures were tied at 46% apiece.
When respondents were presented with three different first-round scenarios, Lula led those matchups with 41% of the vote in each simulation. Flavio Bolsonaro's share varied between 36% and 38% depending on which other candidates were included in the field.
Under Brazil's voting rules, a candidate must secure more than 50% of valid ballots to avoid a second round. If no contender clears that threshold, the two leading candidates move on to a runoff - a pattern that has occurred in every presidential contest since 2002.
Market participants have been monitoring polling data closely since the imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro publicly backed his son Flavio's campaign in December. The endorsement has been cited as a factor that markets watch when assessing election risk and potential policy direction.
Lula, 80 years old and the victor over Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term as president.
The Nexus poll contacted 2,028 people between Thursday and Saturday. The survey's stated margin of error is 2 percentage points in either direction.
Methodology note - The figures above reflect simulations run by BTG Pactual and Nexus based on the respondents surveyed in the specified period. The margin of error means small shifts in reported percentages are within the poll's statistical uncertainty.
Implications for markets - The poll's tight margins help explain why investors and traders continue to follow polling updates closely; the relative proximity of the two main contenders keeps a second-round contest a realistic outcome.