Kepler Cheuvreux has downgraded shares of Aurubis (NAFG:DE) from buy to hold, citing limited potential for additional gains after a substantial advance in the stock price. The brokerage firm signalled that valuation is the principal constraint on further near-term upside.
On the back of the announcement, Aurubis shares slipped 1.6% on Friday. The move followed a pronounced rally earlier in the year: prior to Thursday's close the stock was reported to be up 51% year-to-date, after a 62% gain in 2025.
Kepler Cheuvreux said it expects adjusted earnings before tax to come in below current consensus for the company’s second quarter of the 2025/26 financial year. That quarterly result is scheduled for publication on May 6.
At the same time, the broker acknowledged potential upside later in the fiscal year driven by recent increases in metal prices and in sulphuric acid pricing. Those commodity moves could benefit Aurubis during the second half of the company’s financial period.
Kepler Cheuvreux also left open the possibility of a guidance revision. The firm observed that an upgrade to the company’s current conservative outlook is feasible if market conditions and commodity pricing trends continue to improve.
Context and implications
The downgrade reflects a valuation-centric judgement: after a sizeable run-up, the brokerage views the stock as having limited immediate upside despite potential operational and commodity tailwinds. The broker’s near-term earnings expectation and the company’s upcoming quarterly report are focal points for investors assessing the outlook.
What to watch next
- The second-quarter adjusted earnings before tax figure for 2025/26, due May 6, which Kepler Cheuvreux expects to be below consensus.
- Movements in metal and sulphuric acid prices, which the broker flagged as factors that could improve results in the second half of the financial year.
- Any company guidance updates that could shift the current conservative outlook toward a more positive trajectory.