Goldman Sachs on Friday revised upward its forecast for China’s robotaxi fleet, now projecting growth from 5,000 vehicles in 2025 to about 14,000 by the end of 2026. The bank’s updated outlook extends through 2035, when it expects the domestic robotaxi fleet to total approximately 3.1 million units - equal to 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles.
The firm said its new estimates for the 2025-2035 period are higher across the board, reflecting a 7% to 25% lift from prior forecasts. Goldman cited smoother-than-expected deployment schedules and clearer expansion guidance from operators for the revision.
“Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even,” Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang wrote in their note.
Overseas expansion and robotrucks
Alongside robotaxi forecasts, Goldman introduced projections for overseas fleets and for robotrucks. The firm expects Chinese autonomous-mobility companies will increasingly depend on international markets to fuel growth. By 2026 Goldman's model assigns overseas fleets as a share of global totals of 29% for WeRide, 9% for Pony AI and 7% for Baidu, with those shares rising to 43%, 37% and 38%, respectively, by 2035.
The bank also modeled a substantial rollout for robotrucks, writing that these vehicles could become a notable long-term revenue stream. Goldman’s forecasts show China’s robotruck fleet expanding from 8,000 units to 760,000 across 2026-35E.
Initiating coverage: Pony AI and WeRide
In separate coverage notes, Goldman initiated Buy ratings on Pony AI and WeRide. For Pony AI, the bank reaffirmed a Buy on its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) with a 12-month price target of $30 and initiated Buy coverage on the Hong Kong-listed H-share with a target of HK$234.
Goldman said it views Pony AI as a leading supplier in autonomous mobility and forecasts the company’s revenues to grow at a 100% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2030. The bank expects this revenue trajectory to be driven by fleet growth to 3,000 vehicles by end-2026, entry into more than 20 cities across China and overseas, and a shift toward fleet-owned arrangements that place capital expenditure on asset owners rather than the operator.
On profitability, Goldman projects Pony AI’s net income will turn positive in 2029 and reach $1.3 billion by 2032.
For WeRide, Goldman started coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of HK$54.23. The analysts forecast WeRide’s revenues will expand at an 80% CAGR over 2025-2030, supported by growth of its global fleet from 2,800 vehicles in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032.
Goldman noted WeRide offers breadth across autonomous vehicle types - including Robotaxi, Robobus, Robovan and Robosweeper - and has already launched public robotaxi services in Dubai and Riyadh. The firm highlighted WeRide’s target of fully driverless passenger service in Abu Dhabi in the first half of 2026.
The bank also pointed to WeRide’s movement toward an asset-light deployment model, which keeps vehicle spending off the company’s balance sheet to accelerate rollouts.
Implications for investors and markets
Goldman’s revisions and new company coverage underline accelerating commercialization in China’s autonomous mobility sector, with material implications for fleet operators, vehicle suppliers and logistics providers. The firm’s modeling incorporates significant overseas expansion as well as the emergence of robotrucks as a potential revenue category.