Overview
Jefferies has flagged three leading property and real estate names in the United Arab Emirates and given all three Buy ratings as the sector adjusts to changing market dynamics. The bank’s analysis centers on businesses that stand to gain from elevated infrastructure spending, healthy cash flows and meaningful land positions across the Emirates.
Company assessments
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Aldar Properties - Buy
Jefferies describes Aldar as an "Abu Dhabi Champion and A Play on the Upcoming Capex Super-Cycle." The firm highlights Aldar’s stronger medium-term pre-sales profile and a diversified mix of activities that includes project management and logistics assets tied to rising UAE infrastructure investment. Jefferies points to a new AED55 billion public-private partnership pipeline as a concrete source of growth opportunities. While Aldar’s current yield is said to be lower than peers, the bank projects that the yield will climb above 5% by 2028.
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Emaar Development - Buy
Labelled a "Cash Machine," Emaar Development is presented as a high-quality, cash-rich platform. Jefferies notes that the company’s medium-term pre-sales remain near mid-cycle levels and that it controls strategically located land totaling 0.3 billion square feet, with a product emphasis on villas and master-planned communities. The firm factors in lower margins on new launches - estimating margins that are 3-6 percentage points below prior levels - yet still models medium-term earnings per share above consensus. Jefferies also forecasts 2026-27 dividends that are 17-19% higher than Street expectations, representing under 25% of non-escrow cash.
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Emaar Properties - Buy
Jefferies sees Emaar Properties as offering "Appealing Exposure to The Dubai Success Story." Although the bank is cautious on tourism, it points to recurring income from prime retail assets as a stabilizing factor. Jefferies’ own forecasts sit above consensus levels and the firm considers an AED1.00 per share dividend to be highly secure even while Emaar executes an AED65 billion capital expenditure program. Emaar is noted as one of the most liquid stocks in the MENA region, offers an 8% yield and trades at roughly a 55% discount to third-party net asset value.
Interpretation and market context
Jefferies’ selections emphasize a combination of recurring cash generation, scale in land holdings and direct exposure to infrastructure-led demand. The bank’s projections for each company generally exceed consensus, underpinning its Buy recommendations. For investors focused on income or balance-sheet strength within the UAE property complex, these names are presented as primary candidates aligned with an anticipated capex cycle across the Emirates.
Bottom line
Jefferies has highlighted Aldar, Emaar Development and Emaar Properties as Buy-rated ways to participate in potential upside from UAE infrastructure spending and resilient cash profiles. The bank’s detailed assumptions include improved yields at Aldar, above-consensus EPS and dividend forecasts at Emaar Development, and a secure dividend and steep valuation discount for Emaar Properties despite a large planned capex program.