Standard Chartered this week launched formal coverage of Arbitrum, laying out a bullish valuation path for the layer 2 network and its ARB token. The bank’s digital assets research team projects ARB could climb to roughly $10 by the end of 2030, a near 70-fold increase from the token’s current trading level of about $0.14.
Strategic rationale
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, characterized Arbitrum as "the blockchain for TradFi," arguing that the chain’s business model — enabling traditional financial firms to move positions on-chain — positions it to capture rapid growth in tokenized assets. The bank models a large expansion in tokenization, forecasting $4 trillion of tokenized assets by the end of 2028 versus roughly $340 billion at present.
Standard Chartered highlights Arbitrum as one of two dominant layer 2 chains, alongside Base. The bank points to Arbitrum’s economics for value capture when other projects build on its stack: Arbitrum earns a rolling fee equal to 10% of net protocol revenue generated by projects built on its technology.
Robinhood Chain example
Kendrick singled out Robinhood Chain, which launched on Arbitrum’s stack on July 1, as an instructive case. The bank describes Robinhood Chain as the fastest-growing chain on record by value locked. Standard Chartered estimates the chain could generate around $5 million in fees for Arbitrum in September, an amount more than five times the pre-launch fee levels recorded before the Robinhood Chain deployment.
Valuation gap and forecast trajectory
The research note argues markets currently attribute little value to Arbitrum relative to several layer 1 blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana, despite what Kendrick describes as comparable economics. Standard Chartered expects that valuation gap to narrow over time as tokenization and on-chain activity expand. The bank’s price path calls for ARB to reach $0.50 by the end of 2026 and to continue rising to $10 by 2030.
Risks and limitations
Kendrick flagged several potential headwinds. Slower-than-expected growth in tokenization would reduce the revenue pool Arbitrum can capture. Competition from rival chains could blunt adoption of Arbitrum’s stack. He also noted that ARB currently has no direct, embedded mechanism to accrue value, although the possibility of a buyback program could emerge as the ecosystem matures.
The note also observes a dynamic common to blockchain ecosystems: liquidity often attracts further liquidity. Robinhood Chain’s early traction, the research team argues, raises the probability that additional TradFi operators will choose Arbitrum’s technology stack for their on-chain deployments.
This coverage positions Arbitrum as a potential beneficiary of a large structural shift toward tokenized assets, while also underlining the material uncertainties that will determine whether the bank’s forecasts are realized.