Stock Markets September 9, 2026 02:42 AM

Gym Group Says 2026 Profits Will Land at Top of Forecast Range

Operator cites first-half momentum, membership gains and disciplined cash-funded expansion as drivers of stronger-than-expected results

By Derek Hwang
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The Gym Group reported stronger first-half performance and now expects full-year 2026 EBITDA less normalized rent to come in at the top of analyst consensus. The company is tracking to its 3% like-for-like revenue growth target, saw membership and cash-flow gains, and is progressing with new openings and refurbishments funded from free cash flow.

Gym Group Says 2026 Profits Will Land at Top of Forecast Range
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Key Points

  • The Gym Group now expects fiscal 2026 EBITDA less normalized rent to land at the top end of consensus, implying about a 1% upward revision to analyst estimates; consensus stands at A361.1 million with a high of A362.0 million.
  • First-half results showed a 12% increase in EBITDA less normalized rent to A330.8 million, a 10% rise in free cash flow to A327.7 million, and a 31% increase in adjusted profit before tax to A36.4 million; leverage remained at 1.0 times.
  • The company is progressing with physical expansion and refurbishments: four new openings in H1, 11 sites under construction, a target of at least 20 new sites this year and roughly 75 over three years, funded from free cash flow.

The Gym Group said today it expects full-year earnings to reach the top of analyst estimates, attributing the upgrade to continued momentum in the first half of the fiscal year.

Earnings guidance and analyst consensus

The budget gym operator now anticipates fiscal 2026 EBITDA less normalized rent will be at the top end of the consensus range. Management's update implies roughly a 1% uplift to the consensus figure. The company-compiled consensus sits at A361.1 million, with the highest broker estimate at A362.0 million.

Revenue and like-for-like targets

The Gym Group reaffirmed it is on course to deliver 3% like-for-like revenue growth for fiscal 2026, the same rate achieved in the first half. Like-for-like cost growth is now expected to fall at the lower end of the previously guided 3% to 4% range.

First-half financials

For the first six months, EBITDA less normalized rent rose 12% to A330.8 million. Free cash flow increased by 10% to A327.7 million, while adjusted profit before tax grew 31% to A36.4 million. The company reported leverage of 1.0 times at the half-year point.

Overall revenue for the first half climbed 10% year-over-year to A3133.1 million, and on a like-for-like basis revenue advanced 3%. Total memberships expanded 7.4% from the end of 2025 to 0.99 million. Average memberships rose 5% year-over-year to 1.0 million, and average revenue per member per month increased 5% to A322.14.

Expansion and refurbishment programme

The operator opened four new sites in the first half and currently has 11 locations under construction. The company continues to target at least 20 new site openings for the full year and expects to open approximately 75 over the next three years. Management said these openings will be funded from free cash flow.

Refurbishment activity also featured in the update. Three sites were refurbished in the first half, with a further 18 planned for the second half of the year. The ten sites refurbished in 2025 delivered a 10% membership uplift and are on track to generate a 30% return on invested capital.


This update provides a clear signalling of operational momentum across membership, revenue per member and cash generation while confirming the company is pursuing organic expansion and targeted capital recycling through refurbishments.

Risks

  • Execution risk on the pipeline of openings and refurbishments - the company is targeting at least 20 new sites for the year and approximately 75 over three years, and delays or cost overruns could affect projected growth and returns.
  • Cost growth uncertainty - while like-for-like cost growth is expected at the lower end of the previously guided 3% to 4% range, upward pressure on costs would reduce margin upside and could impact EBITDA outcomes.
  • Membership and revenue sensitivity - the company's guidance depends on sustaining 3% like-for-like revenue growth and further membership gains; weaker-than-expected membership trends would adversely affect revenue and cash generation.

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