Iraq is pressing OPEC+ for a substantial increase in its production quota, requesting that future targets be calculated using a capacity figure of 6 million barrels per day, according to people familiar with the matter on Wednesday.
That proposed baseline would be a large step up from Iraq's current OPEC+ production ceiling of 4.431 million barrels per day, which applies for September and October.
Actual output has been well below either figure recently. A Bloomberg survey found Iraq produced an average of 2.98 million barrels per day in August as flows through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted by the conflict involving Iran, reducing the country’s effective exports.
OPEC+ has engaged an external consultant to carry out an assessment of members' maximum sustainable production capacity. The review is scheduled to be completed by the end of September, with oil ministers expected to ratify the findings in November.
International estimates put Iraq's sustainable capacity lower than the requested 6 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency estimates Iraq's sustainable production capacity at roughly 4.9 million barrels per day, a figure that makes formal acceptance of a 6 million-barrel baseline uncertain.
Separately, Iraq has previously warned it could exit OPEC if its quota is not raised adequately, a stance that has the potential to add pressure to an already delicate balance within the producer alliance.
Contextual note: The request, the external consultancy review, the IEA estimate of about 4.9 million bpd, recent August production averaging 2.98 million bpd, the current OPEC+ ceiling of 4.431 million bpd for September and October, the review timetable (completion by the end of September and ministerial ratification in November), and Iraq's prior threat to leave OPEC are the specific points reported by those familiar with the matter.