Global dealmaking has staged a recovery following a pronounced slowdown immediately after strikes on Iran rattled markets, with several large transactions supporting a rebound in aggregate values.
According to deal-data compiled by LSEG, global deal announcements plunged to roughly $39 billion in the second week of March - a weekly low last seen after the previous April's sweeping U.S. tariff announcement. That fall coincided with market disruption following U.S. and Israeli military action involving Iran.
But the subsequent rebound has been notable. High-value proposals such as Pershing Square’s $68 billion intended bid for Universal Music Group and McCormick & Co’s $45 billion planned merger with Unilever’s food business have helped lift the average weekly value of global mergers and acquisitions in the four weeks beginning March 15 to about $117 billion. That compares with an approximate $93 billion weekly run-rate across January and February, LSEG data show.
What drove the rebound
Dealmakers and bankers attribute the recovery to continued appetite for transformative, large-scale transactions that had been developing prior to the geopolitical shock. "CEO confidence has dropped a bit but the significance and the logic of those corporate transactions remains," said Guillermo Baygual, global co-head of M&A at Citi. He added that, while geopolitical dynamics may add short-term uncertainty, they can also reinforce corporate motivations to increase scale, pursue cost efficiencies and secure financing for essential capital expenditures.
Goldman Sachs’ Nimesh Khiroya, co-head of M&A for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said the drop in smaller deals likely reflected the combined effects of geopolitics and broader macroeconomic headwinds. He suggested the recent uptick in headline M&A values was powered largely by large transactions that had been in the works for an extended period and were not a direct response to events in the Middle East.
Regional patterns and Gulf activity
While aggregate global deal values have bounced back, activity has varied by region. M&A targeting companies in the Gulf amounted to nearly $15 billion so far in 2026, down 65% from the same point last year despite a 5% rise in the number of announced deals. LSEG recorded 70 announced transactions in the Gulf in February, a monthly tally only exceeded once in the region during the past five years. After the conflict began in late February, announced deals in March fell to 37 - the fewest in a month since August 2025.
Gulf-based buyers, however, were relatively active. In the six weeks following the start of the Iran conflict on February 28, acquisitions in which a Gulf entity acted as the buyer totaled $17.1 billion. That amount is 244% higher than the comparable six-week period immediately preceding the conflict, though it remains 21% lower than the equivalent span in 2025, per LSEG.
Equity capital markets and the pace of issuance
Equity capital markets (ECM) activity also shifted after the conflict. LSEG data show a near-term spike in ECM immediately after the attacks, with nearly $50 billion in transactions struck globally across a busy two-week window as some companies and shareholders sought to tap equity investors ahead of potential market deterioration. Over the year to April 14, global ECM reached $215 billion, up 37% on the same period a year earlier.
But ECM dealflow eased in the weeks following mid-March. The four weeks from March 15 averaged about $11 billion per week in ECM transactions, down from $13 billion in January and $18 billion in February. Advisers attributed part of the slowdown in deal value to a pause in new share issuance prompted by the conflict and to a typical lull as companies report quarterly financial results.
Volatility, timing and strategic intent
Market volatility spiked after the conflict erupted in late February, as captured by the CBOE Volatility Index, but the gauge has since eased to below 20 in April. Dealmakers generally interpret a VIX below 20 as a signal of relatively calm market conditions.
Philipp Beck, EMEA head of M&A at UBS, summarised the prevailing view: "Volatility has affected timing in some cases, but it has not fundamentally altered strategic intent, particularly for large, well‑financed transactions." The implication from bankers is that while uncertainty can delay or reshape the timetable for certain deals, fundamental strategic drivers underpinning major transactions remain intact.
Still, the longer-term macroeconomic impact is uncertain. The International Monetary Fund issued a warning this week that a deterioration of the conflict could push the global economy toward recessionary conditions. Baygual at Citi cautioned that a turn to recession would require more scenario analysis by corporate decision-makers and could delay some deals, though he also suggested the next three years could see robust M&A activity as existing underlying drivers persist.
Takeaway for markets and sectors
The near-term picture is one of selective resilience: headline values have recovered thanks to very large, strategic transactions already under development, while smaller deals and some regional markets are more sensitive to geopolitical disturbance. Equity issuance showed a short burst of activity as issuers sought to access capital quickly, followed by a retrenchment in the weeks after mid-March.
For investors and corporate planners, the data suggest a bifurcated market where the size, financing profile and strategic rationale of a transaction determine its vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and market volatility.