Belimo Holding AG rallied 8% on Monday after Morgan Stanley raised the stock to "overweight" from "equal-weight" and lifted its price target to CHF1,100 from CHF860. The brokerage framed the move around what it describes as a structural shift in data center cooling that is accelerating demand for Belimo's valve and control product portfolio.
Morgan Stanley said data centers represented 17% of Belimo’s CHF1.12 billion in sales in 2025, up from 11% in 2024, and accounted for roughly 50% of group growth that year. The broker estimated data center revenue grew more than 70% year-on-year in 2025 and expects the segment to supply more than 50% of group growth for at least the next three years, reaching 38% of revenues by 2030.
On the back of those assumptions, Morgan Stanley projects Belimo’s revenue will climb to CHF1.31 billion in fiscal 2026, CHF1.53 billion in 2027 and CHF1.78 billion in 2028. Its earnings-per-share forecasts for the same periods are CHF18.33 for 2026, CHF22.42 for 2027 and CHF26.20 for 2028.
The broker’s forecasts sit modestly above consensus: about 2% higher for 2026, widening to 9% by 2028 and to 20% by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley’s note.
Three pillars behind the upgrade
Morgan Stanley anchored its upgrade on three main drivers. First, it raised its U.S. hyperscaler cloud capital expenditure forecast following first-quarter results - up 7% for 2026 and 18% for 2027 - and now models 82% year-on-year growth in 2026 to $815 billion and 38% growth in 2027 to $1.13 trillion. Those larger hyperscaler capex assumptions support stronger demand for infrastructure components, including cooling systems.
Second, the brokerage highlighted a technology shift in AI-focused data centers from air cooling to liquid cooling, which favors Belimo’s higher-value products. Morgan Stanley emphasized the price differential: an Energy Valve carries a price of roughly $1,200, compared with a group average selling price closer to $130 to $150. Within the 2025 results, control valves grew 31.3% in local currency, well ahead of damper actuators, which expanded 14.4%.
Third, Morgan Stanley pointed to a compression in replacement cycles for data center field devices. Where commercial buildings often see replacement cycles of 25 years or more, server refreshes in AI data centers could shorten replacement intervals to five to seven years, driving earlier and more frequent re-specification of components.
Belimo management, during the company’s 2025 results call and cited by the broker, described its market positioning within data centers: "In the general grayscale gray part of the data center, we have our normal market share, which is probably around 20 to 25%. And then if it comes really to the high end part on the cooling side - on the Energy Valve that is required to cool directly the chip - we have got an almost dominant market share."
Morgan Stanley noted the stock trades at 47.7 times its 2026 earnings estimate. On a growth-adjusted comparison - which divides the forward EV/EBIT multiple by the EBIT compound annual growth rate - the brokerage found Belimo screens cheaper than ABB, Siemens, Halma and IMI.
As part of its valuation range, Morgan Stanley set a bull-case target of CHF1,510 and a bear-case target of CHF600. The broker identified the primary downside risk as a change in data center architecture that could place more liquid-cooling components inside coolant distribution units, thereby reducing Belimo’s standalone specification power.
Market reaction and outlook
The market response to the Morgan Stanley upgrade was swift, with the stock moving higher on the day of the note. The analyst case rests on sustained hyperscaler investment, a continued shift toward liquid cooling in AI data centers and accelerated replacement cycles that together lift demand for higher-value valves and controls.
Investors and sector participants weighing the note will be watching hyperscaler capex trends, adoption rates for liquid cooling architectures in AI-focused facilities, and Belimo’s ability to retain specification power for its Energy Valve product line.