Republicans are pressing former President Donald Trump to translate his endorsement into financial support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as the state’s U.S. Senate contest moves into a more uncertain phase. Paxton, who defeated four-term Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff following an eleventh-hour endorsement from Trump, now faces a competitive general election against Democrat James Talarico.
The dynamics of the race changed rapidly after the runoff, prompting forecasters to move the seat from likely Republican to lean Republican in a state that Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024. The change reflects growing concern within GOP ranks that Paxton’s vulnerabilities - including criminal indictment and an impeachment by the Texas House - combined with weak campaign finances, could open the door for Democrats.
Fundraising gap and campaign resources
Fundraising figures underline the challenge Paxton faces. His campaign reported raising $7.6 million through May 6 and holding $2.3 million in cash on hand. By contrast, Talarico’s campaign reported $40 million raised through March and $9.9 million available. Party operatives and strategists inside Texas say Paxton will require substantial outside money to remain competitive in what is now a tightened contest.
Texas is also an expensive state to contest electorally, with 20 separate television media markets adding to the cost of reaching voters across its large geography. Republicans had already poured tens of millions into efforts to preserve the seat for Cornyn, who had been viewed as a safer bet to retain the seat for the party.
Pressure on Trump to deploy his political funds
Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported holding $356 million in reserves, though it has not committed funds to Paxton’s campaign. Party officials and donors are now watching to see whether that war chest will be used to defend the seat. MAGA Inc. spent nearly $377 million to support Trump’s 2024 effort and has already spent $1.7 million this cycle on two special congressional contests in Tennessee and Georgia.
There is an assumption among some Senate Republicans that Trump will step in financially. "The assumption is that he is" going to invest in Paxton, a Senate Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity said. "I think he should. He put his foot on the scale for his candidate that won. So we are assuming that he will."
At the same time, the Senate Leadership Fund - the primary super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans - plans to invest $342 million in battleground states this fall, but key strategists say Texas is not part of that planned spending allocation. The fund declined to comment on its strategy when asked.
Republican reactions and broader implications
Some Republicans are publicly calling for Trump to back his endorsement with financial support. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming said it would be "very helpful if the president would help the people he endorsed." Other Senate Republicans avoided directing how the former president should allocate his money. Senator John Curtis of Utah said he would not tell the president how to spend his funds, noting "That’s his funding. That’s his decision."
Pro-Paxton voices emphasize unity and momentum. Gregg Keller, spokesman for the Lone Star Liberty PAC that supports Paxton, said Republicans are rallying behind their nominee. "We are thankful to the president for his endorsement and leadership and look forward to joining the Senate majority next year," Keller said in a statement. He added that "There is no amount of money Talarico can spend to erase his radical and dangerous record."
Conversely, Democrats see opportunity. Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ super PAC, said Paxton’s nomination has forced Republicans to devise a new strategy for a state they previously expected not to contest closely.
Competitive Democratic challenger
Talarico, a state representative with rising prominence in the Democratic Party, has built a formidable war chest and a profile that appeals to a broad array of voters in Texas. He has drawn sizable crowds even in deeply Republican counties by discussing his Christian faith and proposing policies aimed at confronting wealthy interests he says divide and disadvantage the working class. Those themes have attracted voters and contributed to his campaign’s financial performance.
Republicans have countered by criticizing Talarico’s policy positions, targeting him on immigration and gender issues and accusing him of holding heretical views in those communities. A Texas Pulse poll conducted on June 9 shows the race tied, underscoring the uncertainty facing both campaigns.
Strategic calculations and alternatives
Analysts and party operatives say Paxton’s fundraising deficit is a central obstacle and have pointed to Trump’s endorsement as a chief reason for the competitive nature of the contest. Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said many national Republicans recognize Paxton’s vulnerabilities and are aware he is likely to run a close race. "And lots of people are pointing the finger directly at Donald Trump because it was his endorsement that created that stampede to Paxton in the runoff," Jillson said.
Another route for financial support could come from within Texas. Governor Greg Abbott has a political committee called Texans for Greg Abbott that reported nearly $96 million in cash on hand in February. Abbott’s press secretary, Eduardo Leal, said the governor is backing the entire Republican ticket but declined to state whether Abbott’s committee would direct funds specifically to Paxton. "Republicans are united and focused on delivering a decisive victory, and we’re confident Texans will once again reject the radical left’s agenda," Leal said.
What is at stake for the Senate
Republicans currently control the Senate by a 53-47 margin. Maintaining that majority is a primary objective for Senate GOP strategists; losing control would shift committee leadership to Democrats and could affect the ability of a Republican president to see nominees through confirmation processes. The Senate GOP is targeting Democratic seats in Georgia and Michigan that Trump carried in 2024, while defending vulnerable seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska and potentially Iowa and Texas.
Internal GOP planning documents flagged the risk that a Paxton nomination could force Republicans to divert hundreds of millions of dollars that would have otherwise been applied to other critical battlegrounds. An internal memo warned that such a nomination would put Texas in play for Democrats and cause Republicans to reallocate funds at scale.
Uncertainty over where high-dollar political ad spending will land
Texas’ size and media landscape mean that any major ad campaign will be costly and complex. The state’s 20 television markets increase the price of broad reach television buys, which in turn affects how outside groups and super PACs plan their expenditures. MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund have sizable resources, but neither has publicly committed to a Texas ad program targeting Paxton.
Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser at MAGA Inc., told Politico that the super PAC is raising money to spend on campaigns but will not disclose when or where it will deploy funds. He described Texas as an open Republican seat "that we’ll have to ensure that we win."
Where the race stands now
With Paxton’s legal troubles - including an indictment for felony fraud and an impeachment in the Texas House - paired with a comparatively thin campaign bank account, the race is set to be a test of party unity and donor willingness to redirect significant resources. Republican strategists and outside groups face a recalibration of plans heading into the fall, as they weigh whether to ask Trump to use his war chest in Texas or rely on other donors and committees to shore up Paxton’s campaign.
The contest will also illuminate how national and state Republican leaders prioritize battlegrounds and whether the party is prepared to spend heavily to preserve its Senate majority in the face of an unexpectedly close race in a state it won comfortably in the previous presidential cycle.
Reporting in this piece reflects information provided by campaign filings, public statements, internal GOP communications cited by party sources, and public polling referenced above.