Overview
Poland's Ministry of Finance has published a baseline forecast that anticipates real gross domestic product will grow by 3.6% in 2026. The government formally adopted draft economic projections covering the 2026-2030 period on Tuesday, and the ministry set out its expectations for growth, the public deficit and the debt trajectory in an accompanying statement.
Fiscal and growth projections
Under the baseline, the ministry expects the general government deficit to be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, arriving at 6.8% of GDP in 2026. At the same time, public debt is projected to rise: the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to increase to 65.1% of GDP this year, up from 59.7% in 2025, according to the ministry's projections.
Short-term dynamics and inflation
The ministry's analysis indicates that, following the 2026 projection, the effect on inflation would be negligible. However, the ministry also notes that real GDP growth would be slightly lower over the next two years, reduced by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, before the projected shock dissipates and growth returns to the baseline path.
Risk factors
In its statement, the ministry identified the primary risk to net spending growth in 2026 as the impact of the war in the Middle East on economic conditions in Poland and in neighbouring areas. The ministry highlighted that developments in that conflict could influence the fiscal outlook and spending trajectories embedded in the projections.
Implications and context
The projections present a mixed fiscal picture: an expected narrowing of the general government deficit alongside a notable rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. The ministry's forecast for a modest temporary slowdown in growth in the two years after 2026, and the characterization of inflationary effects as negligible, frame the near-term macroeconomic outlook as cautious but broadly stable under the baseline scenario.
Note: The figures and statements in this article are drawn from the Ministry of Finance's baseline projections and its official statement.