Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,173 total articles
BCA Research says that although the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet pushed the global economy into recession, seven factors have so far mitigated the shock. Chief Strategist Peter Berezin cautions that the risk of recession would rise significantly if the strait stays closed into June. BCA is currently neutral on global equities but wil…
DeepSeek, a Chinese large language model developer, is reportedly preparing its first external fundraising round that could value the company as high as $50 billion. Discussions are said to include China’s 60-billion-yuan national artificial intelligence fund and private technology investors, with the start-up possibly aiming to raise $3 billion to…
A May 1-6 poll of foreign exchange strategists finds the U.S. dollar poised to remain range-bound in the near term, with short-term direction tied to developments in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While the dollar rallied early in the conflict on short-covering and safe-haven flows, most gai…
Banca Generali raised its 2026 net interest income guidance, citing expected interest rate increases during the year. The private bank posted stronger first-quarter earnings and healthy net inflows, and has submitted a binding bid to buy a majority stake in Investlinx, an Irish ETF platform managing about 240 million euros.
Egypt's annual consumer inflation fell to 14.9% in April from 15.2% in March, while monthly inflation slowed to 1.1% from 3.2%. The weaker monthly print reduces near-term odds of a rate hike at the central bank's May 21 policy meeting, even as the economy faces imported energy costs, a softer pound and capital outflows tied to the Iran war.
A study prepared for China’s Chamber of Commerce to the EU estimates that proposed EU cybersecurity rules phasing out equipment from so-called "high-risk" suppliers across 18 critical sectors would cost the bloc 367.8 billion euros ($432.83 billion) between 2026 and 2030. Germany would shoulder the largest share, with projected losses of 170.8 bill…
Egypt's urban consumer price inflation dropped to 14.9% year on year in April from 15.2% in March, according to official statistics from CAPMAS. On a monthly basis, overall prices rose 1.1% in April while food and beverage costs fell 0.7% month on month but remained 6.7% higher than a year earlier. Analysts had expected inflation to rise, citing re…
Central banks largely paused policy easing in April as the Iran war drove oil prices higher and pushed inflation expectations up. Six banks that oversee the 10 most traded currencies left rates unchanged, while some emerging market authorities moved cautiously amid currency weakness and surprise inflation readings.
Israel has agreed to transfer jet fuel to Germany after a recent request from Berlin, the Israeli energy ministry said Wednesday. The ministry said shipments will be coordinated with refineries but did not specify volumes or timing. Officials also said Israel will evaluate options for assisting with natural gas supplies. The decision was cleared by…
Kevin Warsh argues in a forthcoming book that the Federal Reserve's long-standing practice of recording and eventually publishing full transcripts of its policy meetings dampens open debate among officials. Drawing on work he carried out for the Bank of England and remarks made in a 2023 interview, Warsh proposes turning off recording for initial r…
European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone said the likelihood of an ECB rate increase has grown as inflation remains elevated and upside risks persist. Inflation reached 3% in April, and while negotiated wage data have not shown a jump in pay demands, Cipollone warned that shifts in longer-term expectations or a rapid rise in wages could f…
U.S. stock futures pushed higher after President Donald Trump said he would suspend a U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and indicated progress toward a peace arrangement with Iran. Brent crude fell but remained above $100 a barrel. Advanced Micro Devices reported a sharp rise in profit and revenue driven by demand for AI-related data ce…
With UniCredit formally launching a 37 billion euro takeover of Commerzbank and having accumulated close to a 30% stake, some figures in Berlin are exploring whether state-owned KfW could be used to expand Germany’s existing 12% share. The move would aim to create a large enough holding to obstruct a full takeover, a plan that faces political and f…
Global equity benchmarks rose to fresh records after major Asian markets reopened from holidays, propelled by a jump in semiconductor shares in Seoul and strong services data from China. Samsung Electronics surged, pushing the KOSPI above 7,000 and lifting MSCI global and emerging market indices. Oil fell for a second day after remarks from the U.S…
A private-sector purchasing managers' survey showed China's services activity expanded at a quicker clip in April, with new domestic business the main driver. The reading diverged from an official survey that signaled a return to contraction. Export demand softened further and firms faced rising input costs tied to higher oil, fuel and freight pric…
The U.S. dollar weakened against most major peers after Washington signalled potential progress toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Comments from U.S. officials and a temporary pause in a naval escort operation helped drive oil prices lower, while the yen drifted toward levels that have previously attracted intervention from Tokyo. Markets …
President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause in Project Freedom, the operation intended to reopen commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, saying a deal with Iran was close and "great progress" had been made toward a "complete and final agreement." He added the naval blockade of Iran will continue. The pause comes after Iranian milita…
Stocks rallied to fresh highs on a wave of AI optimism supported by strong corporate results, lower oil prices and easing Middle East tensions. The advance was broad-based, led by technology and semiconductors, even as long-term government bond yields rose and inflation breakevens signalled persistent price pressures.
The U.S. Trade Representative has opened a four-day Section 301 hearing into excess industrial capacity among 16 major trading partners. Domestic manufacturers urged higher duties to counter rising exports from countries with spare factory capacity, while import-dependent sectors and farm groups urged restraint. Testimony from nearly 150 representa…
JPMorgan Chase strategists warn that New York City now faces an elevated probability of a credit rating downgrade after New York State signaled it is unlikely to approve significant personal and corporate tax hikes. The bank's report highlights constrained revenue options for the city as it confronts an estimated $5.4 billion two-year budget shortf…
Senate Republican leaders have proposed directing $1 billion in taxpayer funds to the U.S. Secret Service this year to finance security improvements that would cover upgrades to the White House ballroom, a project President Trump has said would be paid for by private donations. The broader measure, part of an almost $72 billion package to fund Immi…
President Donald Trump said he will bring up the war in Iran when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit next week, and characterized Xi's handling of the issue as respectful and non-confrontational. Trump noted that Beijing purchases substantial volumes of Iranian oil, supplies that have been interrupted by the conflict. The meeting, se…
The European Commission urged the United States to restore the tariff framework agreed in last year’s EU-US trade deal before the pact’s one-year mark at the end of July. In a Paris meeting, EU official Maros Sefcovic and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer discussed outstanding issues including U.S. threats to raise car and truck tariffs to 2…
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, an outgoing member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said the bank does not currently see clear evidence that rising oil prices have produced inflationary effects broad or durable enough to merit higher interest rates. He reiterated that the ECB would act if second-round effects emerged, and noted he wil…
Peter Magyar, Hungary's incoming prime minister, warned that the country's budget deficit is expected to reach 6.8% of gross domestic product this year, a figure well above the government's earlier targets. Magyar said his party uncovered a government decree suggesting the current cabinet plans to empty public funds ahead of the transfer of power, …
