Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,201 total articles
The International Monetary Fund said the US-Israel campaign against Iran poses a 'global, yet asymmetric' shock that will push prices higher and dampen growth. The IMF highlighted immediate strains on oil supplies, rising crude prices, and threats to fertilizer and food availability that could imperil low-income countries as planting season gets un…
The governor of the Bank of Mexico indicated that the central bank may be close to finishing its sequence of interest-rate reductions, defending last week's 25 basis-point cut to 6.75% made in a narrow 3-2 vote. She attributed a recent uptick in headline inflation to temporary volatility in fruit and vegetable prices but acknowledged that risks are…
Turkey’s Defense Ministry says NATO forces intercepted a ballistic missile over Turkish airspace on Monday, the fourth such incident in less than a month. The ministry reported the projectile was launched from Iran and neutralized by NATO air and missile defenses deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, while providing limited location details. Iran …
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told an audience at Harvard University that monetary policy is well-positioned to pause and observe how rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict will affect U.S. inflation and economic activity. He reiterated that energy-driven price shocks tend to be transitory and that interest-rate adjustments work with…
The Bank of Israel left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 4% for the second consecutive month, citing higher inflationary pressure linked to the Iran war and a marked rise in global energy prices. The decision follows earlier easing moves after a Gaza ceasefire and comes as the bank revises near-term growth forecasts and signals a gradual eas…
The U.S. Department of Labor released proposed regulations intended to provide trustees clearer guidance on adding less liquid alternative investments - including private equity and cryptocurrencies - to 401(k) retirement plans. The draft follows a presidential executive order and could open a substantial capital channel for private asset managers,…
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC he continues to favor lowering policy rates by about a percentage point this year to address a still-robust labor market, even as markets price a potential Fed hike following the onset of fighting in Iran. He said there is no sign of a wage-price spiral or an inflation shock from oil, reiterated conc…
Citadel Securities warns that longer-dated bonds are beginning to reclaim their role as a hedge against market risk as investors move from inflation worries to growth concerns amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East. The firm highlights shifting drivers of financial conditions and cautions that a protracted conflict could create demand destr…
The International Air Transport Association reported an 11.2% year-on-year rise in global air cargo demand in February 2026, with international shipments growing slightly faster than the overall market. Capacity increased more modestly, while regional and trade-lane performance varied sharply. IATA cautioned that the late-February outbreak of war i…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that individual tax refunds in the 2026 filing season are more than 10% higher than a year earlier, with almost half of filers taking advantage of new deductions in the Republican tax cut law enacted last year. He flagged a particularly large uptake in a deduction for overtime premium pay earned in 2025 an…
The Bank of Israel left its policy rate unchanged at 4% on Monday, a decision that matched forecasts from Bloomberg-surveyed economists. The move reflects a cautious posture amid heightened uncertainty tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran, which officials say is contributing to inflationary pressures at home and abroad. Markets in Israel showed v…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the administration anticipates the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened to commercial shipping, saying the U.S. intends to restore freedom of navigation through either U.S.-led or multinational escorts. He also described a significant global oil supply deficit and noted coordinated releases of strategic r…
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has issued guidance urging banks and other financial institutions to be vigilant for fraud schemes targeting federal and state healthcare benefit programs, including Medicare and Medicaid. The advisory lays out common money-laundering patterns used by transnational criminal organizations and offers red-flag …
A Morgan Stanley consumer poll of about 2,000 Americans conducted March 19-23 finds data privacy and fears over job security remain the most frequently reported anxieties as AI use in the workplace grows. The survey also records higher concern about inflation and a jump in geopolitical worries, while roughly half of consumers plan to save or pay do…
Global government bond markets are headed for their largest monthly losses in years as the Middle East war shifts investor attention from hoped-for rate cuts to the risk of persistent inflation combined with weaker growth. Short-dated, rate-sensitive bonds have borne the brunt of selling, even as that pressure showed tentative signs of easing. Mark…
A Swiss National Bank survey shows mobile payment app use plateaued last year while cash continues to be a widely supported payment method. Debit cards remain the dominant form for in-person purchases, and most respondents prefer retaining cash for reasons including anonymity and perceived control over spending.
S&P Global Ratings cautions that the Middle East war risks ending a period of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets, as disruptions to oil shipping have pushed crude prices sharply higher. The spike in energy costs has immediate implications for importers and exporters alike, with rising inflation and tighter financing conditions poten…
Barclays cautions that investors appear to be tilting toward higher odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes despite recent commodity-driven inflationary pressures. Analyst Jonathan Millar argues that the market is assigning roughly a 25% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase by December, a stance the bank views as premature without clear, sustai…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak to an introductory macroeconomics class at Harvard University as policymakers and markets weigh how to respond to simultaneous inflationary pressure and slowing growth stemming from the Iran war and rising fuel prices. The situation poses a classic central-bank dilemma: tighten to restrain inflation an…
As oil and gasoline prices climb following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are monitoring signs that household and market measures of inflation expectations may be slipping from the 2% anchor. Recent weak Treasury auctions, higher U.S. yields and a jump in one-year consumer expectations have intensified deba…
U.S. stock index futures opened higher on Monday in a holiday-shortened trading week after steep losses the previous session, as investors continued to digest the widening Middle East conflict. Renewed fighting and comments from global leaders have driven oil and commodity prices higher, lifting energy and aluminum stocks in premarket trade, even a…
Nvidia’s price-to-earnings multiple has dropped to its lowest level since early 2019 as investors reel from geopolitical fears tied to the Middle East and questions about the timing of returns from heavy AI infrastructure spending. The pullback has erased roughly $800 billion from the company’s market value even as gross margins have expanded and a…
JPMorgan's equity strategy team argues that while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have revived memories of 2022, several material differences in wage trends, central bank positioning, consumer dynamics, European growth and energy infrastructure make a repeat of 2022-style stagflation unlikely.
The ongoing Iran conflict, now entering a second month, continues to reshape energy flows and investor sentiment as the first quarter ends. Oil prices have jumped well above pre-war levels, while trading eyes remain fixed on both diplomatic signals from Washington and a slate of U.S. economic data—including manufacturing activity and the March jobs…
The first quarter ends under intense geopolitical strain as the Iran conflict reshapes market priorities. A sharp rise in energy prices, large equity losses, and sudden shifts in safe-haven flows have left investors recalibrating risk and policy expectations. In the coming week markets will focus on U.S. payrolls, South Korea trade data, and a flas…
