Mexico is projected to remain in a prolonged period of weak growth coupled with relatively elevated inflation in 2026, according to a recent poll of economists. The outlook reflects continued uncertainty around the country\'s trade relationship with the United States and Canada, and marks what poll respondents describe as a stretch of low growth and persistent price pressures not seen since the early 2000s.
The median forecast from 35 analysts polled between April 13 and April 17 calls for gross domestic product to expand 1.5% this year, an acceleration from the 0.6% growth recorded last year. Despite that pickup, the poll anticipates Mexico will log a third consecutive year of growth below 2% in 2026, with inflation remaining close to or at the upper edge of the central bank\'s target band.
Panelists expect the country to begin to emerge from this period of near-stagnation and relatively high inflation in 2027, when the median forecast calls for growth of 1.9%, unchanged from the previous survey. The 2026 growth projection in this poll was slightly above the 1.3% rate that had been forecast in January.
Inflation outlooks in the survey were revised higher. The consensus forecast for average annual inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.8% for this year and was lifted to 3.8% from 3.7% for 2027. Poll respondents cited the effect of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on energy prices as one factor contributing to the upward revision.
Mexico\'s central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus one percentage point, meaning the revised forecasts lie at or near the upper limit of that tolerance band.
On monetary policy, the consensus in the poll was that the central bank would conclude a prolonged easing cycle this quarter by delivering one final 25 basis-point rate cut to 6.50%.
Views from banks and analysts
Economists at Grupo Banorte signaled a more optimistic near-term case in a recent report, highlighting potential upside from trade developments and the expected boost to economic activity from the football World Cup in June and July. The bank analysts also estimated that public investment would accelerate, which could support domestic demand.
However, those positive influences sit against a broader consensus that trade-policy uncertainty remains a significant constraint on growth.
Trade-deal scenarios and economic risk
On the future of the trade arrangement with Mexico\'s North American partners, Scotiabank\'s Mexico head economist, Rodolfo Mitchell, set out a ranked set of possible outcomes. He said the most favorable path for Mexico would be ratification of the current arrangement. A second-best outcome, he added, would be an inconclusive negotiation this year that nevertheless produced an agreement to implement annual reviews of the USMCA.
"The worst-case scenario would be a formal renegotiation of the treaty since Mexico has very limited room for negotiation and would probably end up accepting most of the changes proposed by the U.S.," Mitchell said. "This may include stricter rules of origin for U.S. products as well as non-trade provisions like migratory arrangements that would be clearly negative as it would politicize USMCA and reduce its legal certainty."
Alfredo Coutino, director at Moody\'s Analytics, assessed the timing probabilities. He judged that a trade agreement in the second half of the year - past a July 1 deadline - was more likely than no agreement. He also warned that the negotiations would be turbulent.
"However, the negotiations will be marked by back-and-forth, friction, and threats of termination by the U.S. all with the intention of obtaining the best advantages and largely to impose its demands," Coutino said.
What the poll measured
The findings reflect the median views of a panel of 35 economists surveyed over a five-day period in mid-April. The poll captures expectations for growth, inflation and monetary policy across the near-term horizon and reflects recent adjustments to forecasts tied in part to higher energy prices and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty.