The U.S. Energy Information Administration's June Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that both U.S. natural gas supply and domestic consumption will hit record levels in 2026 before rising further in 2027.
The EIA's forecast calls for dry natural gas production to increase from a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027. Domestic gas consumption is projected to move from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.1 bcfd in 2026 and to 95.0 bcfd in 2027.
The June outlook nudged up the agency's 2026 estimates compared with the May report. In May the EIA had forecast production of 110.6 bcfd and domestic demand of 91.2 bcfd for 2026; the June figures are higher for both series.
On the export front, the agency expects average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to climb from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.2 bcfd in 2026 and then to 18.6 bcfd in 2027, according to the June projections.
Coal production is projected to decline over the same period. The EIA expects U.S. coal output to fall from a two-year high of 528.4 million short tons in 2025 to 518.4 million tons in 2026 and to 496.8 million tons in 2027, the latter level the agency notes would be the lowest since 1963. The report explicitly states that power generators are expected to burn less coal in coming years.
Projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels reflect these shifts in fuel mix. The EIA forecasts fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to drop from a three-year high of 4.904 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.818 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil and coal use decrease, and to then increase slightly to 4.837 billion metric tons in 2027 as natural gas use rises.
The Short-Term Energy Outlook's June updates show modest upward revisions for 2026 gas production and demand relative to May, alongside continued growth in LNG exports and a steady decline in coal production through 2027. The emissions trajectory in the report follows those fuel movements, falling in 2026 before edging up in 2027 as gas use expands.
Key points
- Dry natural gas production is forecast to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027 - impacting the upstream oil and gas sector and midstream infrastructure.
- Domestic natural gas consumption is projected at record levels: 91.9 bcfd in 2025, 92.1 bcfd in 2026 and 95.0 bcfd in 2027 - with implications for power generation and industrial gas users.
- Average U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.2 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027 - relevant to export logistics and terminal operations.
Risks and uncertainties
- Projections for fuel consumption and production could change, which would affect coal producers and electric power generators that the EIA expects will burn less coal.
- Shifts in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are contingent on the assumed declines in oil and coal use and the projected increase in gas use; emissions could diverge if fuel trends differ from the forecast.