Macquarie has flagged the U.S. dollar as a likely beneficiary if the current U.S.-Iran confrontation shifts further into an economic war and continues through the second quarter. In a note, analyst Thierry Wizman argued that the move from kinetic conflict to economic measures - including the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - has the potential to reshape global supply chains in ways that advantage the dollar.
The firm emphasizes that prolonged economic hostilities could create risks of critical mineral and energy cut-offs and produce "non-linear" disruptions across global supply chains and economies. Those conditions, Macquarie says, would tend to support the U.S. currency, given the United States' positive net energy balance and a diversified economic base that provide buffers against supply shocks.
Macquarie points to Asia as an area under particular strain. The bank estimates that crude oil shipments from the Middle East to Asian destinations have fallen by roughly 60% compared with pre-war levels. On a broader scale, total Asian crude imports are down by about 30% since the onset of the conflict.
The immediate impact of those declines has been muted to date by national inventory buffers. At the war's outset, Japan and South Korea held roughly 224 and 200 days of net import coverage respectively, giving them substantial near-term protection. By contrast, Macquarie highlights much thinner coverage in other economies: Australia is estimated to have around 33 days of coverage, while India is said to hold roughly nine days in underground strategic reserves.
Macquarie cautions that dollar appreciation is conditional on the persistence of the conflict in its economic form. According to the note, only once the economic war ends and "assured safe passage of critical goods" is re-established can the diversification trend away from the dollar that some expected in 2025 reassert itself.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Energy markets and import-dependent economies in Asia are most directly affected by reduced Middle East crude flows.
- Global supply chains that rely on key minerals and energy inputs could face non-linear disruptions if cut-offs persist.
- The U.S. dollar may strengthen relative to other currencies while the economic conflict endures, supported by the U.S. energy position and economic diversification.