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Stock Markets April 24, 2026 02:56 PM

U.S. Stake in Intel Now Showing Roughly $26 Billion Paper Gain

Quarterly beats and several strategic partnerships coincide with a strong uptick in Intel's share price since the government investment

By Hana Yamamoto INTC
U.S. Stake in Intel Now Showing Roughly $26 Billion Paper Gain
INTC

The U.S. government's purchase of a 9.9% stake in Intel has produced an estimated paper gain of just over $26 billion, driven by a rise in the chipmaker's share price to about $81 late on Friday. The investment included 433.3 million primary shares and a conditional five-year warrant. Recent corporate deals and stronger-than-expected quarterly results have accompanied the share-price appreciation.

Key Points

  • The U.S. government paid $20.47 per share for a 9.9% stake in Intel and now holds 433.3 million primary shares, producing a paper gain of just over $26 billion based on Friday's ~ $81 share price.
  • The original deal included a five-year warrant at $20 per share for an additional 5% of common shares, exercisable only if Intel no longer retains at least 51% ownership of its foundry business.
  • Intel's recent corporate momentum includes a $5 billion investment from NVIDIA, a planned use of Intel's 14A process by Tesla for Dojo and vehicle chips, and a multi-year Xeon and ASIC co-development agreement with Google; the company also reported quarterly results and guidance that beat consensus.

The U.S. government's equity position in Intel is currently showing an unrealized gain of roughly $26 billion, calculated from the company's closing share price on Friday.

Intel shares were trading near $81 late into Friday's session, about four times the $20.47 per-share price the U.S. paid for a 9.9% stake in the company in August 2025. With ownership of 433.3 million primary shares of common stock, the government's paper gain sits just above $26 billion.

The original transaction also included a five-year warrant priced at $20 per share that would allow the purchase of an additional 5% of Intel's common shares. That warrant is exercisable only if Intel stops owning at least 51% of its foundry business.

Intel has been the subject of several major commercial arrangements since the government took its minority stake. NVIDIA invested $5 billion in the company in late 2025 in a deal tied to collaboration on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Tesla announced plans to use Intel's 14A process for its next-generation Dojo and vehicle chips. Google agreed to a multi-year purchase of Xeon processors and a joint effort to develop custom ASIC Infrastructure Processing Units.

On the corporate results front, Intel reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.29, above analysts' estimate of $0.02. Revenue for the quarter was $13.58 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $12.41 billion.

Intel's guidance for the second quarter of 2026 calls for $0.20 earnings per share, higher than the consensus view of $0.09. The company expects second-quarter revenue in a range of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, compared with a consensus estimate of $13.04 billion.

The article also noted a valuation tool referenced in coverage of the stock: a Fair Value calculator that combines 17 established industry valuation models to assess whether INTC represents a buying opportunity.

Summary: The U.S. government's minority holding in Intel, acquired at $20.47 per share for a 9.9% stake, is currently valued at a substantial paper gain as the share price approaches $81. The investment includes a conditional warrant and comes amid several strategic partnerships and a quarter that beat revenue and earnings expectations. Intel's guidance for the next quarter also exceeds consensus figures.

Risks

  • The five-year warrant that accompanies the U.S. stake is conditional and becomes exercisable only under the specific circumstance that Intel ceases to own at least 51% of its foundry business - an uncertain corporate outcome that would affect potential dilution and ownership.
  • The valuation noted for the U.S. stake is an unrealized or 'paper' gain tied to the market price; future share-price movements could erase or reduce the gain, affecting the reported benefit to the government's holding.
  • Intel's guidance, while above consensus, is forward-looking and subject to execution and market conditions; misses to future estimates or changes in partner arrangements could affect revenue and earnings trajectories.

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