A TD Cowen analysis, drawing on survey responses from 689 U.S. purchasing decision-makers, indicates that generative AI (GenAI) is moving from experimentation toward commercial traction, and that market pricing may not fully reflect the revenue opportunity for incumbent enterprise software vendors.
The survey found that 92% of respondents reported use of at least one of the three leading GenAI providers: Microsoft Copilot (70%), Google Gemini (55%) and OpenAI's ChatGPT (53%). On average, companies reported deploying 2.6 AI agent vendors each, signaling multi-vendor adoption rather than exclusive, single-provider deployments.
Despite the breadth of deployment, TD Cowen notes overall monetization is still limited. The report, however, identifies signs of improving returns: 75% of respondents said they receive a positive return on investment from AI agents. In parallel, intent to expand paid productivity suites is notable, with 79% of Microsoft 365 users and 80% of Google Workspace users indicating they are somewhat or very likely to upgrade their suite subscriptions within the next 12 to 18 months.
The research is particularly constructive for enterprise software-as-a-service vendors. TD Cowen emphasized that the survey results "paint a more favorable AI monetization picture than what's being priced into stocks today, especially with Enterprise SaaS vendors." The firm specifically called out Salesforce, ServiceNow and SAP as companies likely to benefit if AI-driven monetization accelerates.
Horizontal AI agents - those that cut across business functions rather than being industry-specific - currently have the lowest adoption among agent types. Yet survey respondents rate horizontal agents highly for returns: 58% of users reported a 3x or greater return, the highest perceived ROI among agent categories captured by the survey.
On the trajectory for autonomous AI capabilities, the report projects a sharp increase in deployment. TD Cowen expects adoption to rise from 34% at present to 77% by the second half of 2027, more than doubling the current penetration rate according to its projection.
TD Cowen also revised its outlook for Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue, raising the compound annual growth rate forecast from about 13.5% to 15% through fiscal year 2030. The firm now projects Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue of $105.6 billion over that horizon.
The survey and subsequent analysis underline an inflection in both usage and willingness to pay among enterprise customers, with implications for sectors tied to productivity software and enterprise SaaS. The data indicates a movement from experimentation to monetization, but TD Cowen's conclusions remain grounded in the survey responses rather than in observed market outcomes to date.