Raymond James compiled first-quarter 2026 results for about 45 companies across softlines retail, global brands and digital commerce and found most companies surpassed consensus on both top- and bottom-line metrics. The research house reported that 76% of the sampled firms beat revenue expectations, with results averaging roughly 220 basis points ahead of consensus. On the earnings front, nearly 90% of the companies topped per-share forecasts, delivering earnings about 17% above Street estimates.
Geographically, North American sales growth accelerated to 7% in the first quarter, up from 6% in the fourth quarter, driven largely by strength in luxury labels and digital commerce platforms. At the same time, company commentary highlighted persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, a cautious stance on inventory replenishment and measurable pressure on lower-income consumers.
Athleisure and footwear
Within athleisure and footwear, results varied by brand. Adidas recorded strong results, while Nike posted only modestly positive growth in its fiscal third quarter ending in February. Puma and Under Armour continued to operate under pressure as their turnaround plans remain underway. On and HOKA, the latter under the Deckers umbrella, each delivered double-digit growth rates. Birkenstock slightly missed analyst expectations, and Crocs produced mixed outcomes across its categories.
Premium and luxury brands
Performance among premium and luxury houses was uneven. LVMH, Kering, Hermes and Hugo Boss all reported revenue declines in the quarter. By contrast, several North American luxury and premium players - including Tapestry, Ralph Lauren and Canada Goose - posted robust growth. Capri was described as remaining a work in progress by company commentary.
Digital commerce and marketplaces
Digital commerce emerged as the strongest subsector in the Raymond James sample. Secondhand and marketplace players, specifically The RealReal, thredUP, ETSY and eBay, reported growth over the quarter. Firms with sizable exposure to the home category underperformed relative to digital-only and marketplace peers.
Apparel, multi-brand and off-price retailers
Apparel brands and standalone retailers generally exceeded expectations, led by Levi's, Urban Outfitters and American Eagle. Multi-brand retailers signaled more strain among lower-income customers, while off-price retailers such as TJX, Ross Stores (ROST) and Burlington demonstrated outperformance versus peers.
Regional trends
In Europe, growth was largely steady quarter-over-quarter across athleisure, footwear and luxury, although Nike and Hermes showed sequential weakness. Asia-Pacific growth accelerated across all tracked subsectors in the Raymond James review.
Analyst estimates heading into Q2
Street estimates for second-quarter revenue growth rose by roughly 10 basis points since the start of the Q1 earnings season. The increase was driven primarily by a 250 basis-point uplift in digital commerce forecasts, which was partly offset by downward revisions in luxury, specialty apparel and athleisure footwear categories.
The results and commentary illustrated a market where digital commerce and certain premium North American brands are supporting growth, even as macro uncertainty and consumer pressure at lower income levels create headwinds for other segments.