Morgan Stanley's tracker for consumer staples commodity costs recorded a 5% year-on-year decline through April 17, while registering a 3% increase from March readings. The move reflects divergent paths among underlying commodity components.
On an annual basis, petrochemicals and oil showed the largest gains: ethylene rose 99%, propylene climbed 84%, and oil increased 61% compared with the same period last year. By contrast, several agricultural and soft commodities remained cheaper than a year earlier, with eggs, cocoa, coffee, and sugar reported below prior year levels.
Month-over-month changes through April were also concentrated in petrochemicals and plastics. Propylene led gains, up 51% from March, followed closely by ethylene at +50%, and combined HDPE/PET/LDPE polymers up 34%. Meanwhile, energy and coffee softened on a monthly basis: Europe natural gas fell 20%, US natural gas was down 9%, and robusta coffee declined 7%.
Morgan Stanley notes the index sits about 40% above the pre-Covid average established on January 5, 2010, underscoring an elevated baseline for commodity costs despite the recent year-on-year decline.
Looking ahead to 2026, the firm's central estimate points to roughly 1% year-over-year cost pressures across the staples sector if spot commodity prices remain at current levels. That 1% estimate is unchanged when excluding companies focused on chocolate products.
Chocolate manufacturers face more pronounced swings tied to cocoa: Morgan Stanley quantifies a 7% headwind in the first half of 2026, followed by an 8% tailwind in the second half, driven by cocoa price volatility.
For household and personal care categories, the cost tracker currently signals 2% year-over-year cost pressures for 2026, a change from a flat outlook when the tracker was last published in mid-March. The outlook for the second half of 2026 shows an increased headwind of 6%, up from a prior 2% headwind, attributed to volatility in packaging material prices and oil.
Food and beverage companies are estimated to face a modest 1% headwind in 2026, according to the same assessment.
These readings highlight a near-term decline in overall staples commodity costs on a year-over-year basis while signalling continued sensitivity to swings in petrochemical, energy, and specific agricultural commodities that feed through to sub-sectors such as chocolate, household and personal care, and food and beverage producers.