Jefferies on Monday provided fresh estimates for Macau's gaming sector, saying that gross gaming revenue over the seven days ending June 7 averaged around MOP700 million per day. That pace was about 11% lower than the previous week and roughly 4% beneath the average daily rate observed in May 2026.
Looking ahead to the full month, the firm projected roughly 4% year-over-year growth for June, translating to an average daily rate of about MOP731 million. That forecast contrasts with market consensus, which expected a small decline of 1% year-on-year for June.
Jefferies cautioned that the month faces challenging year-on-year comparisons. The firm noted that June 2025 recorded growth of 18.5%, creating a tough base for the market to top this year. Year-to-date growth through May stood at 1.7%, and Jefferies said debate continues over whether headlines for the sector will turn negative as comparisons tighten.
The FIFA World Cup, scheduled from June 11 to July 19, adds another layer of uncertainty. Jefferies reported differing management views on the tournament's potential impact. Commentary from Las Vegas Sands suggested the World Cup would have minimal effect on gross gaming revenue, while Galaxy Entertainment is planning additional events and promotional activity to counter possible disruption.
According to Jefferies, the market is becoming more divided, with the premium segment expected to remain the principal driver of profitability. Against that backdrop, the firm expressed a preference for operators positioned in the premium space, specifically naming Wynn Resorts and Galaxy Entertainment.
Finally, Jefferies observed that every month remaining in the year will face double-digit year-on-year growth comparisons with 2025, with the sole exception of September. That dynamic reinforces the near-term challenge for headline growth metrics across the Macau gaming market.
Contextual notes
- Average daily gross gaming revenue for the seven days to June 7: ~MOP700 million - down 11% week-over-week and 4% below May average.
- Jefferies' June forecast: ~4% year-on-year growth and ~MOP731 million average daily rate, versus market consensus of -1% year-on-year.
- June 2025 growth of 18.5% sets a difficult comparison; year-to-date growth through May is 1.7%.