Stock Markets April 17, 2026 01:04 PM

EU Prepares Guidance to Reduce Middle Eastern Jet Fuel Dependence as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply

Brussels readies non-binding measures ranging from stock releases to refined fuel mapping as carriers warn of cancellations and airports signal imminent shortages

By Priya Menon
EU Prepares Guidance to Reduce Middle Eastern Jet Fuel Dependence as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply

The European Union is set to advise member states to lower reliance on Middle Eastern jet fuel and to explore increasing imports from the United States, according to EU officials. Draft guidance due next week will stress resilience through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and synthetic alternatives, outline how airlines should handle shortages and clarify the treatment of cancellations and compensation, and propose mapping and better use of EU refining capacity. The steps respond to supply disruption tied to the Iran conflict and the potential for prolonged interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Points

  • EU to recommend cutting dependence on Middle Eastern jet fuel and exploring increased U.S. imports; guidance focuses on resilience via SAF and synthetic fuels - impacts aviation, energy and refining sectors.
  • Draft measures will offer operational guidance on cancellations, slot loss and anti-tankering, and clarify compensation rules for airlines facing fuel shortages - impacts airlines, airports, and passenger rights frameworks.
  • Commission plans EU-wide mapping of refining capacity and measures to ensure existing refineries are fully utilised and maintained; distribution logistics for U.S. Jet A will be examined - impacts refining, logistics and military fuel supply chains.

BRUSSELS, April 17 - The European Union will urge member states to reduce dependence on jet fuel sourced from the Middle East and to examine options for boosting imports from the United States, in guidance expected to be released next week, an EU official said.

The document, still being finalised, will place greater emphasis on strengthening resilience and enhancing self-sufficiency for aviation fuel through measures including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and synthetic fuel alternatives. The official, who asked not to be identified because discussions are ongoing and the draft is not final, said the guidelines are part of the EU response to disruptions in global jet fuel supply linked to the Iran conflict.

European airlines have warned that jet fuel shortages could materialise within weeks and imperil the summer travel season. The concern is acute because Europe imports roughly 30% to 40% of its jet fuel, with at least half of that volume coming from suppliers in the Middle East.

A European Commission spokesperson confirmed plans to present a set of responses to the energy crisis next week that will include actions on jet fuels. "Availability of supply remains the primary concern," the spokesperson said, adding that if flows remained blocked through the Strait of Hormuz the EU could consider a coordinated release of jet fuel stocks.

The official noted that the bloc is constrained in its ability to increase jet fuel production domestically, and that the forthcoming, non-binding recommendations will provide guidance to member states and industry on how to manage potential shortages.


Recent developments in regional maritime access

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for energy shipments from the Gulf, was reported to have been opened on Friday after a ceasefire accord in Lebanon. However, the situation remains uncertain: the United States' position, as conveyed by the U.S. President, is that a naval blockade will remain in effect until a settlement with Tehran is finalised. The EU spokesperson said he hoped the resumption of safe passage through the strait would continue but added: "Let's see."


Operational impacts on airlines and regulators

The prospect of a supply crunch is already influencing airline operations. The International Air Transport Association's director general warned that flights in Europe could begin to be cancelled from the end of May because of jet fuel shortages. Some carriers have already cut schedules and grounded aircraft in response to tightening supplies.

The draft EU guidance will address practical issues airlines face during shortages. It will set out how regulators should treat loss of airport slots that result from cancellations and explain how the bloc's anti-tankering rule - which stops carriers from loading extra fuel at cheaper locations to avoid mid-route refuelling - should be applied in shortage scenarios. The guidance is also expected to clarify whether a fuel shortage constitutes an exceptional circumstance that would relieve airlines from paying passenger compensation for cancellations.

The official said the EU has determined that airlines' calls to alter or suspend the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and SAF allowances are not justified in the current context.


Refining capacity and supply-chain measures

In addition to operational guidance, the Commission plans to produce an EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products and propose measures to ensure that existing refineries are fully utilised and maintained, according to a draft proposal seen earlier. This mapping is intended to provide a clearer picture of the bloc's ability to process jet-grade fuels and to identify bottlenecks in refining and distribution.

Officials will also examine the logistics of increasing the use of U.S. Jet A fuel in Europe. U.S. Jet A has historically been less common in the European market because it has a higher freezing point than the European Jet A-1 standard, which is favoured for long-haul, high-altitude and cold-temperature operations and is preferred by military users.

Trade flows have started to shift: jet fuel imports from the United States and from Nigeria rose sharply in April. Several major European aviation hubs - located in Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany - rely on the NATO-operated Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS) to receive European-grade jet fuel. A NATO spokesperson did not immediately respond to inquiries about the pipeline's logistics.


Forecasts and timeframes

Agencies monitoring the market have warned of tightening supplies. The International Energy Agency has forecast jet fuel shortages by June if Europe can only replace half of the supplies it normally receives from the Middle East. Some airports have warned they could run short of fuel within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to fuel shipments.

The European Commission is expected to caution that jet fuel availability could continue to be constrained even if maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz is restored.

The draft guidance due next week therefore combines immediate operational advice for airlines with longer-term planning measures intended to shore up refining utilisation and encourage alternative fuels, while stopping short of altering current emissions or SAF regulatory frameworks.

Risks

  • Prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could sustain tight jet fuel supplies and force coordinated stock releases - affects aviation and energy markets.
  • Flights in Europe may begin to be cancelled from the end of May if jet fuel shortages materialise, disrupting airline operations and reducing airport throughput - affects airlines, airports, and travel-related services.
  • Even if passage through the Strait is reopened, jet fuel supply could remain limited, leaving demand-supply imbalances and pressuring refining and logistics networks.

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