BTIG began coverage of Take-Two Interactive with a Buy rating and assigned a $290 price target, saying the scheduled Nov. 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI has the potential to spark a prolonged recovery in the company's earnings profile.
Analyst Clark Lampen told clients that GTA VI is expected to "catalyze a sustainable, multi-year improvement in earnings power for the enterprise," and BTIG is projecting an average of $10 in earnings power across the fiscal 2027 to 2029 period. The firm also pointed to precedent for valuation multiple expansion that has historically occurred during pre-release marketing cycles for titles under the Rockstar label.
BTIG's forecast for fiscal 2027 sits above both Take-Two's own guidance and street consensus. The bank models bookings of $8.597 billion and pro forma EPS of $7.16 for FY27. By comparison, Take-Two's guidance range for bookings is $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, while visible alpha consensus stands at $8.476 billion in bookings and $6.59 in pro forma EPS.
Beyond the GTA release, BTIG noted improvement in other parts of Take-Two's portfolio. The note says NBA 2K has "rebounded from its FY25 blip," and the bank expressed measured optimism about the company's mobile efforts. BTIG observed that the broader mobile gaming sector has recovered meaningfully from the IDFA-related weakness seen in 2021, and that trends across most of Take-Two's mobile portfolio "appear steady," with the exception of the title Color Block Jam.
The research note also discussed upside scenarios. BTIG flagged historical reference points for spending in GTA Online that support per-capita spend levels of $40 to $45. Those figures exceed the bank's base-case per-user spending assumptions of $30 to $40 in years one through five following launch.
BTIG's $290 price target is derived using a 29x price-to-earnings multiple applied to its modeled earnings. The combination of higher modeled bookings and elevated per-user monetization scenarios underpin the firm's constructive stance on Take-Two's medium-term earnings trajectory.
Key takeaways and modeling assumptions were highlighted alongside the initiation: the company is rated Buy; FY27 projections exceed Take-Two guidance and consensus; and management's existing franchises and mobile offerings are viewed as generally stable, aside from a noted weakness in Color Block Jam.