Barclays on Tuesday moved Porsche AG shares to an Equal Weight rating from Underweight and raised its price target to €50, up from €40. The bank simultaneously reduced its estimates for Porsche’s underlying operating profit - cutting the 2026 forecast by 13% and the 2027 forecast by 17% - in what constitutes a second consecutive round of downward revisions.
Analysts led by Henning Cosman said they now sit in line with consensus for 2028 and see little justification to remain negative on the stock, noting the absence of immediate downside catalysts. "We see no near-term negative catalysts and we are in line with the Street on 2028 - consequently we neutralise our call and upgrade to Equal Weight," they wrote.
Market activity has already reflected some of these changes, Barclays noted. Porsche shares have outpaced the European autos sector index by roughly 30% since March 20, suggesting investors may have priced in the downgrades for 2026 and 2027 and refocused on the expected recovery in 2028. That rebound is tied to several upcoming model launches, including a combustion-engine successor to the Macan, a battery-electric 718, and a new Premium SUV positioned above the Cayenne.
On volumes, Barclays projects Porsche deliveries will decline by 13% in 2026 and fall a further 11% in 2027, before increasing 16% in 2028. The bank’s margin outlook follows a similar pattern: operating margin is forecast at 8.8% in 2026, slipping to 8.1% in 2027 as lower volumes weigh on profitability, then rising to 10.5% in 2028 - inside management’s stated target range of 10-15%.
Valuation remains a highlighted concern for the analysts. Barclays calculates that Porsche trades at roughly 17 times projected 2028 earnings, markedly above peers BMW and Mercedes-Benz, which sit at about 5 times. In its own model, Barclays now applies a 15-times multiple to 2028 earnings, up from the 12.5-times multiple it used on 2026 earnings previously. The bank attributes the higher multiple to improving investor sentiment, a new management team, and Porsche’s comparative progress in normalising its position in China versus German rivals.
On the upgrade, Barclays counselled caution on buying at the new price target. "We wouldn’t chase the share price here at €50/share, but with no anticipated negative near-term catalysts and robust current trading, we upgrade to Equal Weight," the analysts said.
The timing of the upgrade precedes a series of investor events this summer. Porsche will hold an investor session on June 20 as part of its "Icons of Porsche" programme and reports second-quarter results on July 29. Barclays expects a solid quarter and margins likely above the top end of full-year guidance, while also warning that the risk to its second-quarter forecast is "quite high." A capital markets day led by new CEO Michael Leiters is expected later in the year, where management is anticipated to provide further details on the route back to double-digit margins.