Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,221 total articles
The International Monetary Fund has sharply reduced its growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, attributing the downgrade to production and export disruptions tied to the Iran war. The regional outlook for 2026 was lowered to 1.1%, with a projected rebound to 4.8% in 2027 contingent on a quick restoration of energy production and tran…
The International Monetary Fund now anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates gradually but at a marginally faster pace than its projection six months ago. The IMF's World Economic Outlook keeps near-term growth forecasts largely unchanged while flagging the offsetting effects of fiscal stimulus and fuel bill relief against exter…
The International Monetary Fund warns that the euro zone will experience slower growth and a rebound in inflation that will likely require higher interest rates from the European Central Bank, even assuming disruptions from the Iran war subside by mid-year. The IMF highlights the bloc's energy import dependence, the lingering effects of elevated en…
The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecast for Turkey's 2026 economic expansion to 3.4% from a prior estimate of 4.2%, attributing the downgrade to softer-than-expected 2025 growth and the impact of elevated oil and gas prices. The IMF also cut its 2027 growth projection and raised inflation and current account deficit estimates for t…
The International Monetary Fund set out three alternative global growth scenarios for 2026 and 2027 reflecting different durations and intensities of the conflict in the Middle East. The IMF's main - or reference - forecast assumes a short-lived confrontation and relatively quick easing of energy price disruptions. Two downside scenarios envision l…
The Czech central bank reported that a supply shock to fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation close to the 2% target in March, eroding a prior buffer created by rapid economic growth and subdued consumer price pressures. Core inflation rose to 2.9% on stronger services inflation, and the bank warned that continued …
The International Monetary Fund's chief economist said central banks may need to tighten policy more aggressively if a prolonged Middle East conflict pushes up oil and commodity prices, arguing that the current economic slack means steeper rate moves could be required to achieve the same disinflation seen after the pandemic. The IMF also trimmed it…
The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth projection as surging energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict raise the prospect of a widespread slowdown. The IMF set out three scenarios - reference, adverse and severe - that depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict and the path of oil prices. In its bas…
The International Monetary Fund reduced its growth forecasts for Germany for both 2026 and 2027 and raised its inflation outlook after a rise in oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict. The IMF's World Economic Outlook now projects slower expansion for Germany and the euro area, while urging targeted fiscal support and caution against broad fu…
The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2026 growth forecast for Britain to 0.8% from 1.3%, the largest downgrade among major rich economies, citing the inflationary effects of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which initially doubled natural gas prices. The IMF also expects unemployment to rise and inflation to remain above target through 2026, …
The UK raised a record £15 billion through a syndication of 10-year gilts maturing in 2036, paying a yield of 4.9158% and attracting £148 billion of orders. The sale produced the highest yield on a 10-year gilt auction since 2008, a development linked in market commentary to heightened risks stemming from the war between the US and Iran that began …
The Producer Price Index for final demand climbed 0.5% in March, matching a downwardly revised 0.5% rise for February, as stable services costs offset a sharp increase in energy prices tied to the conflict with Iran. Year-on-year PPI advanced 4.0% in March. Economists had expected a larger monthly jump; core PCE estimates suggest moderate upward pr…
Fund managers in Europe have become markedly less bullish on regional growth, according to Bank of America's April European Fund Manager Survey. Responses from 90 managers overseeing $247 billion of assets show a sharp swing toward expecting slower growth, a record share flagging stagflation as the dominant macro regime and heightened concern that …
India's automobile industry is cautioning that the ongoing conflict in West Asia could disrupt vehicle production, raise input and fuel costs, and push up freight rates. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers highlighted oil, commodity prices, exchange rate movements and shipping route interruptions as near-term concerns, while industry sal…
Bond market participants are increasingly adopting curve steepener strategies that bet on lower yields at the short end and higher yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve. Traders say the stance reflects expectations that the Federal Reserve will eventually resume cutting rates, while longer-dated securities face pressure from persistent …
JPMorgan Chase posted higher first-quarter net income, driven largely by increased revenue in its markets division amid heightened market volatility. The bank also recorded a notable rise in investment banking fees as deal activity climbed, while management highlighted a range of global risks that could affect future performance.
European Central Bank rate tightening at the April 30 meeting is not guaranteed, Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn said, as the institution monitors the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Rehn warned that headline inflation will rise this year but emphasized uncertainty over the war's medium-term impact and highlighted the role of the…
The European Central Bank has recommended that it be given authority to assess the total capital requirements facing euro zone banks, including measures set by national regulators, as part of a set of 17 proposals submitted to the European Commission. The ECB says a holistic assessment by its Governing Council and senior supervisors would help expo…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said interest rate decisions are not predetermined and should be driven by the broader economic picture rather than individual price movements. He cautioned that headline inflation will rise in 2026, while the medium-term implications of recent shocks - including the war in the Middle East - …
Hui Ka Yan, founder of China Evergrande Group, went from a high-profile presence at official celebrations to pleading guilty to fundraising fraud and bribery after three years in detention. His property empire, now in liquidation with liabilities above $300 billion, epitomizes the strain on China’s property sector and the risks of aggressive levera…
U.S. equity futures edged higher amid reports of potential progress in negotiations aimed at a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, even as a U.S.-enforced blockade of Iranian ports entered a second day and constrained passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased below $100 a barrel on improving diplomatic signals, while a wave …
European Central Bank policymaker and Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn said the Middle East war underscores the importance of accelerating the green energy transition for Europe’s economic resilience and competitiveness. He warned that slowing that transition now would be a serious mistake, said a rise in headline inflation this year is unavoidab…
Investors have shifted capital into Chinese government bonds as low inflation and structural energy buffers make China less likely to raise interest rates in response to global oil-driven inflation pressures. March foreign inflows into Chinese debt contrasted with widespread outflows from other emerging markets, and short-term yields in China have …
Government indebtedness across the Group of Seven has climbed to levels that now amplify the effect of rising borrowing costs. Recent geopolitical shocks, notably the Iran conflict, have revived inflation risks and driven yields higher, intensifying pressure on countries with large deficits or heavy reliance on energy imports. Policymakers are reac…
Australia’s corporate sector is beginning to show tangible financial strain from the Middle East conflict and the accompanying surge in fuel prices. Profit warnings from Qantas Airways and Westpac, a steep fall in business confidence and a sharp drop in consumer sentiment point to mounting inflationary pressures alongside weaker demand, raising the…
