Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,112 total articles
Apollo Global Management’s chief economist Torsten Slok cautions that the surge in spending on AI data centers and related infrastructure will be inflationary, potentially delaying planned interest-rate reductions by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Slok cites higher semiconductor, energy and labor costs, and notes that markets now price in a str…
Bulgaria’s ruling party will table amendments to raise the government’s debt ceiling by €3.8 billion this year, largely to finance projects under the EU Recovery and Resilience Plan. The budget committee head said the extra borrowing is required before parliament can pass a 2026 budget in early August after delays linked to the country’s political …
UBS economist Dean Turner says rising gilt yields and forward rates pose a meaningful challenge for the United Kingdom given its debt-to-GDP ratio north of 90% and a still-wide government deficit. However, Turner argues the U.K. is relatively better placed than several peers because of the long average maturity of its debt and a more moderate near-…
Switzerland's economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a rebound in manufacturing output and an easing of U.S. tariff pressures. The quarterly gain accelerated from 0.2% in late 2025 and matched the country's long-term quarterly growth rate. While pharmaceuticals and chemicals contracted, stronger production in machinery, me…
The International Monetary Fund said Brazil’s central bank acted appropriately in cutting policy rates in March and April, while urging continued flexibility in future decisions because of elevated uncertainty and renewed inflation pressures tied to high global energy prices. The IMF also noted the economy's resilience through recent shocks and pro…
The Bank of England is increasing scrutiny of public-sector pay after it has outpaced private-sector wages for a year, Governor Andrew Bailey said. With public pay excluding bonuses rising more quickly on an annual basis for 12 consecutive months - the longest such streak since 2021 and before that 2011 - the central bank is concerned that a wideni…
UBS expects the European Central Bank to lift its main rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, a move largely priced in by markets. The bank, however, cautions that investors may be underestimating the probability of further tightening through the remainder of the year and flags upside risk to its own forecast of two small hikes.
India’s fiscal deficit for the year ended March 31, 2026, stood at 4.4% of GDP, equal to the government’s revised estimate. The shortfall was 15.19 trillion rupees ($159.91 billion), or 97.5% of the revised target presented in February. Net tax and non-tax receipts rose year-on-year while total and capital spending increased modestly.
A European Commission assessment dated May 28 projects that a 3% digital services tax applied across the EU could yield as much as €5 billion annually. The same document outlines additional revenue options, including an online gambling tax, crypto transaction levies, and capital gains taxation on crypto assets, as member states negotiate a proposed…
An OECD dataset tracking subsidies received by firms reports that government support to industry reached levels not seen since the global financial crisis. Subsidies to 15 sectors totalled $108 billion in 2024, close to a 2023 peak, and as a share of corporate revenue were the highest since 2009. The MAGIC database highlights large-scale support co…
A U.S. district judge in Florida has instructed lawyers for President Donald Trump to respond to a motion by 35 retired federal judges seeking review of a settlement between the Justice Department and Trump in his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS. The settlement would establish a roughly $1.8 billion fund to compensate victims of alleged politic…
European Central Bank figures released on Monday show bank lending to non-financial corporations in the euro area rose to an annual rate of 3.4% in April, up from 3.2% in March. Household lending remained steady at 3.0%. Broad money (M3) annual growth registered 2.7% in April, below consensus. The lending data were published ahead of an anticipated…
Markets enter a data-heavy week with geopolitics and macroeconomic releases set to shape near-term sentiment. Limited military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran have cooled expectations of a rapid settlement to the conflict, yet investors remain relatively calm. Key U.S. indicators - headline nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing and services PMIs,…
Surveys for May show the conflict with Iran has dented European factory demand and driven raw material costs to their steepest increase in four years, even as many Asian manufacturing economies expanded output to stockpile supplies. Regional PMI readings diverged: eurozone activity cooled but remained in growth territory, while several Asian countr…
U.S. equity futures moved higher on Monday, extending a rally that pushed major averages to record closes last week, even as a new round of strikes between the U.S. and Iran undercut momentum toward a ceasefire extension. Brent crude climbed, staying above pre-war levels, while investors awaited U.S. ISM manufacturing data. Separately, Nvidia intro…
A monthly European Central Bank consumer survey for April showed household inflation expectations holding steady or easing across several horizons, despite headline inflation jumping to 3% on higher oil prices. One-year expectations remained at 4.0%, three-year expectations eased to 2.9% from 3.0%, and five-year expectations were unchanged at 2.4%.…
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.6 in May from 52.2 in April, signaling continued expansion but slower momentum. New orders stagnated, export demand fell, and input costs rose at their fastest pace since May 2022 due to higher energy and raw material prices and supply-chain disruptions tied to the Middle East war. Policymakers…
A former Bank of Japan board member cautions that Tokyo risks repeating the policy error that precipitated decades of stagnation if the central bank allows interest rates to remain low while inflation pressures broaden due to the Iran war. With short-term policy rates still at 0.75% despite inflation exceeding the BOJ’s 2% target for four years, ma…
A Reuters poll of economists finds India’s GDP growth likely slowed to 7.2% year-on-year in the January-March 2026 quarter, down from 7.8% in the prior quarter. Weaker external demand and softer industrial activity are expected to have trimmed momentum, even as robust government capital spending and resilient agricultural output supported the econo…
Goldman Sachs elevated its 12-month target for the STOXX 600 to 660 in a note dated Friday, citing resilient corporate earnings, upward revisions in energy, and AI-related optimism as key supports for recent gains. The brokerage also raised three- and six-month targets to 640 and 645, and highlighted valuation limits driven by inflation and expecta…
British house prices declined 0.6% in May, marking the first monthly fall since December and the largest monthly drop since June 2025, Nationwide said. Annual growth slowed to 1.7% from 3% in April. Mortgage rates have risen amid market expectations of later Bank of England rate hikes following the war in Iran, and surveyors report subdued sales an…
U.S. Central Command said it carried out strikes on Iranian radar and command facilities on Goruk and Qeshm island over the weekend, describing the actions as self-defense after a U.S. drone was downed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck a U.S. base it accused of being used to stage attacks on southern Iran. Kuwait reported int…
Major technology firms have been issuing large corporate bond deals outside the United States, pushing smaller currency markets to new depth. Alphabet and Amazon have set records in multiple non-dollar markets, contributing to a surge in international issuance by U.S. non-financial corporates as hyperscalers seek funding for AI infrastructure and b…
Investors appear to be treating the lack of fresh public developments from Gulf peace talks as a form of calm, even as military activity and regional strikes were reported. Despite warnings from commodity analysts that inventory shortfalls could appear by mid-June, Brent crude remains below $100. Asian markets are rallying on AI-driven demand, with…
Private sector purchasing managers' indexes for May show broad expansion across Asian manufacturing, driven in part by companies stockpiling to hedge against supply disruptions and rising input costs linked to the war involving Iran. While China, South Korea, Japan and several other economies reported growth, some official measures diverged and inp…
