Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,160 total articles
A recent poll of economists indicates India’s annual consumer inflation likely rose to 3.80% in April from 3.40% in March, narrowing the gap with the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target. Higher international energy costs and domestic LPG price increases are identified as key upward pressures, while softer food inflation and favorable base…
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde expressed doubt about the case for stablecoins denominated in euros, saying they carry risks that could interfere with the ECB's policy reach and intensify turmoil during market stress. Several large euro-area banks, including Societe Generale, have been developing euro-pegged crypto assets to chall…
Japan is relying on a narrow group of policymakers - the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and U.S. Treasury emissary Scott Bessent - to amplify yen-buying intervention and temper the currency's slide. Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent hawkish shift and subsequent MOF market action have been paired with hopes that Bessent's visit will p…
Global markets moved cautiously as a flare-up between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Gulf and renewed attacks on the UAE tested a fragile ceasefire. Oil rose to about $101 a barrel while investors focused on the prospect of a durable peace. Asian equities logged small daily losses but were poised for substantial weekly gains driven by surging chip …
On May 8, RBC Capital Markets lifted its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 7,750, driven by upbeat earnings revisions concentrated in technology and AI-linked firms and robust demand for AI infrastructure. The new target implies roughly a 7.7% upside from the index's close on Thursday. RBC said large-cap growth stocks remain the market leaders …
A poll of 17 economists indicates new bank lending in China likely fell to roughly 300 billion yuan in April, a marked drop from March's surge. The forecast points to continued softness in credit demand — driven by a prolonged property downturn, restrained private investment and cautious households — even as the central bank signals support and ins…
The United Arab Emirates said it was actively intercepting missile and unmanned aerial vehicle threats it attributes to Iran, as tensions in the Middle East intensified following renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz. The developments follow U.S. actions responding to attacks on American warships and amid disputed claims over violatio…
Inflation-linked government bonds have failed to shield investors from recent market turbulence sparked by the Iran conflict, falling in line with nominal government bonds even as equities surged. While these instruments protect purchasing power over the long run if held to maturity, short-term price declines can occur when real yields rise. Some i…
U.S. job creation probably cooled in April as earlier temporary factors - including warm weather and the return of striking health workers - lost momentum. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings likely rose, a combination that would support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep int…
Forecasts indicate that China's export sector is poised to experience a significant uptick in momentum for the month of April. According to a recent poll of 22 economists, outbound shipments are projected to expand by 7.9% on a year-on-year basis when measured in U.S. dollars. This represents a notable acceleration from the 2.5% growth rate observe…
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has issued a formal call for the nation's financial services industry to prioritize and accelerate its cybersecurity defenses. This warning comes in response to the emergence of frontier artificial intelligence systems, specifically highlighting the potential threats posed by models such a…
New government data released on Friday indicates that real wages in Japan increased by 1% year-on-year in March. This represents the third straight month of positive growth for inflation-adjusted earnings, a development that strengthens the argument for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement an interest rate hike during its upcoming policy review sch…
Major global equity markets faced downward pressure on Thursday, reversing earlier highs as semiconductor stocks retreated. The market shift coincided with a sharp rebound in oil prices, which climbed back above the $100 threshold due to uncertainty surrounding potential U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Investors are now pivoting their attention towar…
Mexico's headline inflation slowed to 4.45% year-on-year in April, down from 4.59% in March and slightly below the median forecast from a Reuters poll. Core inflation declined to 4.26% from 4.45%, also marginally under expectations. The data arrive ahead of a central bank policy announcement later Thursday and follow a 25-basis-point cut in March t…
President Donald Trump has given European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen until July 4th to enact legislation implementing a trade agreement struck at his Turnberry golf resort. Trump says the EU pledged to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, while the United States would cap tariffs on most products at 15 percent; he warned that …
Mexico's central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in a decision that was not unanimous. Two board members voted to keep the rate at 6.75%. The bank also revised its inflation forecast for the second quarter of 2026 upward to 4.1% and expects inflation to move toward its 3% target by the second quarter of 2027.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she is hearing growing anxiety from businesses and consumers that higher inflation expectations are taking hold. Speaking at the Ohio CEO Summit in Columbus, Hammack reiterated the need to remain open-minded about the Fed's next policy decision and pointed to a string of temporary price …
NJ Transit has cut its World Cup roundtrip fare from $150 to $105 following criticism over the initial price. The agency says the higher fare had been intended to cover the extra operational costs of moving large crowds to MetLife Stadium; the governor has instructed NJ Transit to pursue private sponsorships and other funding to further ease commut…
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that a prolonged impact from the Iran war on inflation could prompt the ECB to raise interest rates. She pointed to firms planning price increases, supply-chain disruptions and shifting household expectations as signs the energy shock may broaden, increasing the risk of second-roun…
The U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust division on Thursday warned firms against relying on unsubstantiated claims of artificial intelligence-driven disruption as a basis for merger approvals. Acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed Assefi told an audience at New York University that the agency expects tangible evidence when parties argue that …
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said rising oil prices and supply snarls tied to the Iran war have increased the risk of higher inflation in the euro area. She indicated that the bank may need to raise interest rates, potentially as soon as June, to prevent energy-driven price shocks from triggering broader second-round effects. …
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Thursday found that U.S. households remain broadly unconcerned about overall inflation in April, even as economic data point to increasing price pressures. The one-year inflation expectation rose slightly to 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations stayed at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Expect…
The Bank of England's governing court has approved an interim dividend payment to the UK government, marking the first such transfer since 2020. Governor Andrew Bailey concluded the central bank has built sufficient reserves to support an annual dividend. The decision accompanies broader cost-cutting measures designed to fund a modernization progra…
The Swiss National Bank raised the value of its US stock holdings by roughly 3% in the first quarter, bringing the total to $173.8 billion as of March 30. This marks the central bank's highest level in four years and its second-largest on record. The SNB holds positions in more than 2,300 US-listed firms, with a significant share of its foreign-cur…
The independent council of tax experts has reduced its projection for federal tax receipts across 2026-2030 by 87.5 billion euros, tightening an already stressed fiscal outlook. The downgrade reflects weaker near-term revenues for 2024 and 2027 and comes as the government faces rising defence commitments, a marked energy price shock and increasing …
