Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,129 total articles
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the Fed's recent pause in raising interest rates allowed policymakers time to collect data on labor markets and inflation amid a series of disruptive developments. He warned that whether the central bank can 'look through' current high inflation or will need to tighten policy depends on how cons…
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's late-April policy meeting reveal rising anxiety among staff and some policymakers about financial-market strains. Officials discussed elevated asset valuations, stresses tied to borrowing by hedge funds and private credit opacity, and considered operational refinements to liquidity facilities as Kevin Warsh prepar…
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.51% in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, up from 6.36% the prior week. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 5.85% from 5.71% the previous week. Freddie Mac’s chief economist advised prospective buyers to shop around for mortgage quotes to potentially reduce costs.
The U.S. Department of Justice this week swore in the largest single class of immigration judges in the agency’s history, adding 77 permanent judges and five temporary judges to the Executive Office for Immigration Review. The moves come as the administration replaces dozens of judges who have left and emphasizes reducing a multi-million-case backl…
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said maintaining the Bank's 3.75% policy rate on an extended hold is appropriate given weakening domestic activity and heightened recession risks tied to the Middle East conflict. He argued that further tightening would be warranted only under a worst-case Iran scenario and downplayed the…
An Ankara appeals court has invalidated the results of the Republican People’s Party's 2023 congress, nullifying Ozgur Ozel's election as chairman and removing the head of Turkey's main opposition. The decision follows a separate crackdown that has seen dozens of CHP figures detained since municipal election wins in 2024, and it coincided with a ro…
Iran's ambassador to France says Tehran and Muscat are discussing a plan to institute a permanent payment system for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal would charge ships fees to fund navigation management, security provision and pollution prevention, with Iran framing the measure as a contribution requirement for beneficiaries o…
Bond markets are pricing material differences across U.S. private-credit lenders, with smaller business development companies (BDCs) carrying significantly wider option-adjusted spreads (OAS) than larger peers. An analysis of dozens of issuers and hundreds of bonds finds marked dispersion in yield demanded by investors, reflecting concerns about po…
Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor told an MNI event that the current economic backdrop reduces the likelihood that higher energy costs from the Iran war will trigger persistent, economy-wide inflation - compared with the risk seen after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He cautioned that the picture is uncertain, that markets have already ti…
The International Monetary Fund warned that France is exposed to rising public finance risks as progress on deficit reduction has weakened and public debt remains high. While the budget deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, the IMF said further consolidation is advancing more slowly than expected and faces significant implementation risks. The f…
Britain's finance minister announced a package of temporary measures intended to ease household spending over the school summer holidays and to help industries affected by higher energy costs linked to recent strikes on Iran. The steps include a summer cut in sales tax for some tourist attractions, free bus travel for children under 15 in August, s…
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits edged down last week, signaling continued firmness in the US labor market even as Federal Reserve policymakers weigh inflationary pressures linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The weekly data falls within the period used to construct May payroll estimates and shows ongoing stability in hirin…
Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a set of temporary measures designed to reduce living costs for UK families, including a cut in VAT for a range of summer leisure activities and children’s meals, freezes and cuts to fuel-related levies, and targeted industry support funds. The package is financed in part through tax changes aimed at foreign branch…
The pound traded flat against the dollar at $1.3437 and rose 0.13% versus the euro after S&P Global’s preliminary UK Composite PMI for May dropped to 48.5, signaling the most widespread contraction in activity in over a year. The decline follows softer-than-expected inflation and comes amid disruptions tied to the Iran war and the closure of the St…
A set of May indicators and official forecasts show the economic impact of higher energy costs tied to the Iran conflict is deepening across Europe. Private-sector activity in the euro area contracted at its sharpest rate in over two-and-a-half years, input-price inflation hit a three-and-a-half year high, and the European Commission has trimmed gr…
The European Commission has revised its projection for eurozone GDP growth in 2026 down to 0.9% from an earlier 1.2%, citing an energy shock tied to the Iran war and continued inflationary pressure. Growth is seen slowing from 1.3% in 2025, with a modest rebound to 1.2% expected in 2027. Officials warn that a more adverse energy-price path could su…
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a combined £470 million support package for the chemicals and ceramics sectors, alongside plans to accelerate reforms to the taxation of foreign branch profits that are expected to raise hundreds of millions annually. The move is presented as contingent on market conditions later in the year and linked to en…
The Kremlin has dismissed concerns about nationwide fuel shortages after reports of lower oil refining activity in central Russia following a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged localized production drops and said seasonal maintenance and a calculated fuel balance with compensatory mechanisms mitigate supply risk. …
U.S. equity futures showed little direction on May 21 after Nvidia delivered strong guidance and a large share repurchase plan but did not fully satisfy investor expectations. Market participants are now shifting attention to retail earnings, weekly jobless claims and business activity surveys for clues on consumer resilience, while geopolitical de…
Prime Minister Peter Magyar said his administration will prioritise passing a new budget for 2026 after what he described as excessive spending by the prior government, and that broader tax reforms and measures to ensure equal treatment for domestic and foreign investors will follow in the medium to long term. He also asked for patience before addr…
The Bundesbank said Germany is likely to see flat economic growth in the second quarter while inflation trends upward, driven by increases in fuel costs and uncertainty linked to the Iran war. Preliminary data showed inflation at 2.9% in April, up from 2.8% in March, with the federal economy ministry warning of a significant hit to growth after a m…
The European Union's Court of Justice has ruled that assets connected to Russians on the EU sanctions list may be frozen even when those assets are held through trusts and there is no direct legal link to the sanctioned individuals. The decision, arising from three Italian cases, allows authorities to infer ownership or control from surrounding cir…
Official data from Enterprise Singapore shows onshore residual fuel oil inventories in Singapore increased for a third week, reaching 21.50 million barrels in the week ending May 20. Imports rose modestly from the prior week, while exports grew at a faster pace. Market participants report softer prompt demand in Asia even as arbitrage flows remain …
The European Commission says the euro zone economy will cool in 2026 after a second energy shock in under five years driven by conflict in the Middle East. A rise in oil to above $100 a barrel has pushed up inflation and weakened sentiment among businesses and households. The Commission has downgraded growth forecasts for 2026, raised inflation pro…
Policymakers across Asia are deploying rare and urgent measures to defend economies facing the fallout from a global energy supply shock. Currencies in major oil-importing markets have sunk to record lows, prompting central banks and governments to weigh aggressive rate hikes, direct market intervention and export controls as they attempt to limit …
