Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,613 total articles
Morgan Stanley has revised its projection for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, moving its prior June and September calls to September and December, after interpreting Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting remarks as signalling greater caution and heightened uncertainty. The bank highlights oil-price risk, recommends a neutral stance on U.S. Treasur…
At Tulane University’s Corporate Law Institute in New Orleans, senior bankers and M&A lawyers said the total value of transactions has climbed to near all-time highs despite market volatility, geopolitical conflicts and regulatory uncertainty. Panelists noted that fewer deals are being completed but the ones that are happening tend to involve large…
The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 2% but warned that higher oil and gas prices linked to the Iran conflict increase the risk that inflation will rise. Officials signalled they are likely to begin discussing rate hikes in the near term if energy-driven price pressure persists, with markets already pricing in further tightening …
President Donald Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at the White House, commending Japan for backing U.S. actions in Iran while also making a provocative reference to Pearl Harbor when questioned about ally notification prior to strikes. Takaichi did not respond to that remark but affirmed that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapon…
The Czech National Bank kept its key interest rate at 3.50% in a unanimous decision by its seven-member Bank Board. The central bank did not publish a fresh macroeconomic forecast at the meeting and said an updated outlook will be released in May. In a post-decision press conference, officials underlined the need to maintain tight monetary conditio…
The average rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.22% this week, the highest level since early December, driven by market reactions to conflict in the Middle East that pushed oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher. The increase reverses a recent dip to 5.98% after federal directives expanded mortgage-backed securities purchases, and…
The International Monetary Fund said it is closely tracking the Iran war and related interruptions to seaborne oil and gas flows, cautioning that a sustained rise in energy prices would lift global inflation and shave economic growth. The IMF noted crude has climbed more than 50% to exceed $100 a barrel, has not received formal requests for emergen…
Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital pointed to a swift 50 basis point rise in the U.S. two-year Treasury yield over a period of under three weeks and suggested the move could indicate a forthcoming Federal Reserve rate increase. The two-year reached 3.928% on Thursday morning before easing to about 3.8%. Market pricing in Fed fund futures still …
Speaking in Doha on Thursday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara is offering "friendly" counsel to Tehran to prevent its war with the United States and Israel from spreading across the Middle East. Fidan described Iran's attacks on regional countries as unacceptable, acknowledged Israel as the main actor in the conflict, and stressed…
Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, to explain the nature and extent of any interactions with Jeffrey Epstein after Warsh's name surfaced in government-released documents tied to Epstein. Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, asked Warsh to respond by March …
Most developed market central banks left policy rates unchanged this week while warning they are prepared to raise borrowing costs if an energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran pushes inflation higher. Traders have trimmed expectations for cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased bets on hikes from other central banks. Australia rema…
The European Central Bank left its main interest rate unchanged at 2% and highlighted the war in the Middle East as a growing risk to growth and inflation in the euro zone. ECB President Christine Lagarde said services and private consumption remain the primary supports for expansion, but noted the conflict is disrupting commodity markets, denting …
A sudden rise in oil prices tied to an intensifying U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has further reduced the prospect of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The move in energy markets has pushed gasoline costs higher, prompted Fed officials to lift inflation projections, and diminished near-term odds of monetary easing, complicating th…
The European Central Bank left its main interest rate at 2% on Thursday and flagged that the war in Iran is weighing on the outlook for growth and inflation across the euro zone. Short-dated sovereign yields moved sharply higher, the euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, and European equities fell amid renewed selling linked to the Middle …
The European Central Bank raised its baseline inflation forecasts on higher energy costs and signalled additional downside risk to growth if a prolonged conflict in the Middle East disrupts oil and gas supplies. The ECB now projects 2026 inflation at 2.6% and 2027 inflation at 2.0%, both above previous December estimates, and will publish alternati…
The European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.0%, main refinancing at 2.15% and marginal lending at 2.4%. In its statement, the ECB flagged that a joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran has made the outlook "significantly more uncertain," highlighting higher energy prices - notably natural …
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on March 19, citing close monitoring of growth and inflation risks arising from a recent spike in energy prices after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. The bank said it stands ready to adjust its tools if the situation threatens to lift inflation persistently above its 2% targ…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said meetings between President Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh and U.S. senators have been productive, but he would not address whether a federal probe involving the current Fed chair will be discontinued. Warsh’s path to confirmation remains uncertain after a top Republican senator pledged to blo…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing elevated inflation risks stemming from the war in the Middle East. BoE staff project inflation could rise to as much as 3.5% over the next two calendar quarters, and committee members expressed differing views on whether future hikes may be required…
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged amid uncertainty over inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Markets reacted by pricing in a higher probability of BoE tightening later this year, pushing up short-dated gilt yields and supporting sterling.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network that Washington is not targeting Iran's energy infrastructure amid tensions with Iran and Israel, and that the administration may lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently on water in the coming days. He also said the U.S. has allowed Iranian oil to keep flowing from the Gulf, flagged ab…
Chinese authorities have arrested seven people and taken compulsory measures against 12 more in a campaign focused on chemicals used to make fentanyl, state media reported. The operation in Hubei province produced 22 criminal cases and was launched in December following a public security ministry order. The move responds to longstanding U.S. pressu…
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has declared he will withhold support for a €90 billion EU aid package for Ukraine until oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline are re-established. Backed by Slovakia, Hungary has vetoed release of loans Kyiv needs in the coming months and frames the dispute as an existential issue tied to the pipeline dam…
Serbia has extended a nationwide suspension on exports of crude oil, diesel and gasoline until April 2, the Energy Minister said on Thursday. The measure, aimed at shielding the domestic market from shortages and rising pump prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, applies to all modes of transport. The government also released 40,000 tonnes …
Swiss watch shipments rose in February, with value exports reaching 2.2 billion Swiss francs, a 9.2% increase compared with February 2025. Growth was concentrated in the United States, Japan and France, while the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry says impacts from the Iran war have not yet appeared in trade flows.
