Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,088 total articles
U.S. equity futures moved unevenly in early trading as investors digested sharp moves in crude oil, braced for a consumer-price report later in the day, and tracked signs of stress in private-credit markets. Escalating strikes in the Middle East and a potential release of strategic oil reserves helped drive swings in energy prices, while comments f…
Oil prices have risen sharply since the start of the year amid the war in Iran, prompting markets to price modest ECB tightening. Senior European Central Bank figures this week acknowledged the inflationary risk from energy while largely arguing it is too soon to act precipitously, stressing the need to judge medium-term inflation dynamics and rema…
Germany’s economic rebound is expected to proceed in 2026 and 2027 with only a limited slowdown from recent energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict and disruptions from U.S. trade policy, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) said. DIW forecasts GDP growth of 1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 after a 0.2% gain in 2025, while projectin…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank will evaluate a range of growth and inflation scenarios at its March 19 policy meeting, noting that financial market volatility can amplify economic shocks and make forecasting more difficult. He cautioned that an energy shock could have a magnified effect on activity and ur…
U.S. equity futures were largely flat as investors navigated heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict and digested reports that the International Energy Agency may authorize its biggest-ever release of strategic oil reserves. Brent crude has swung sharply amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz and stalled tanker traffic. Traders are also awaitin…
Turkey's Competition Authority has opened an inquiry into 65 companies operating in the audit and financial advisory sector, explicitly including the Turkish affiliates of KPMG, PwC, Deloitte and EY. The probe seeks to establish whether firms coordinated on service fees, divided client portfolios, enacted measures that could impede market entry or …
The Dutch economy entered 2026 with solid momentum driven by export strength and government consumption, but the outbreak of war in the Middle East has introduced significant uncertainty. Recent data show manufacturing and retail activity improving, and fiscal and wage gains supporting household purchasing power. However, elevated energy prices, lo…
Germany’s Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel warned that the European Central Bank will move promptly if higher energy costs stemming from the Iran war feed into sustained inflation across the euro zone. While endorsing a provisional wait-and-see stance, Nagel said the recent spike in energy prices has worsened the economic outlook and made shortfa…
Heightened military exchanges across the Middle East, fresh threats from the U.S. president and mixed signals from official sources have pushed markets to price in a longer conflict. Oil pared gains after a report the International Energy Agency had proposed an unprecedented release from strategic reserves, while currency and equities moves reflect…
A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, followed by a temporary 10% global levy, has lowered the effective tariff burden on Chinese goods and triggered contrasting responses from exporters. Some firms are frontloading shipments and dispatching technicians to the United States to lock in cheaper duties; others are reluctant to expand U.S.-bound operatio…
A March 2-9 survey of economists finds the Bank of Japan will keep its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19 but that a majority expect a rise to 1.00% by the end of June. The prospect of higher crude prices and a softer yen - linked to recent Middle East conflict - has complicated the policy outlook, though many forecasters see only a gradual path of f…
Consumer prices in the United States are expected to have risen in February, driven in part by higher gasoline costs as markets priced in a worsening Middle East conflict and by the ongoing - but uneven - pass-through of recently implemented tariffs. Core inflation measures are projected to moderate, aided by declines in used car prices and softer …
Westpac economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and again in May, taking the peak cash rate to about 4.35%. The bank's revised outlook reflects a recent surge in oil prices that could lift headline inflation temporarily, and RBA communications highlighting concerns about weak growth in…
Several leading economists and market indicators now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, driven by higher oil prices following conflict in the Middle East and a recent warning from an RBA deputy governor. Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a rise to 4.1%, while Australia’s …
Global currency markets have largely paused as traders await clearer signals on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The dollar, which rose as oil prices jumped early in the conflict, has relinquished some gains amid hopes for a quick end, but analysts and market participants remain sceptical. Central bank interest rate outlooks and near-term inflation …
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is conducting a national search for a new president and is prioritizing candidates who demonstrate a commitment to the Fed's institutional independence and long-term decision-making. Gregory Haile, chair of the Atlanta Fed's board search committee, said candidates must appreciate the value of an autonomous centra…
Oil prices plunged by more than 10% in the largest single-day decline since 2022, fueling gains across Asian and European stock markets even as U.S. shares lagged and finished the session with modest losses. Market attention swung between volatile energy headlines, large intraday swings that threaten leveraged positions, and signs that China’s expo…
Atlanta Federal Reserve board chair Gregory Haile told Reuters the search for a successor to former Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be national in scope, provided candidates demonstrate a willingness and ability to engage with communities across the Sixth District. Applications remain open, interviews are expected to begin in roughly 30 d…
Brazil’s Finance Ministry must update its 2026 growth and inflation projections amid heightened market volatility tied to the conflict in Iran, sources say. Those forecasts will feed into a bimonthly fiscal report due by March 24 that will compare actual revenues and spending with the approved budget and could trigger a spending freeze to meet fisc…
The Pentagon confirmed that roughly 140 U.S. service members were wounded over a 10-day period of hostilities tied to Iran. Officials said the majority of injuries were minor and that 108 personnel have returned to duty; eight service members remain seriously wounded and are receiving top-level medical attention. U.S. military officials also report…
The White House clarified that the United States has not escorted any oil tankers or other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, after an Energy Department post on the social platform X claiming otherwise was removed. Officials also said there is no announcement on lifting energy sanctions and reiterated conditions for ending operations related to …
Large European asset managers have moved to counter recent wild swings in bond markets that have altered expectations for rate cuts among the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Amundi and Allianz Global Investors have increased holdings in short-dated British and Italian government bonds and longer-dated UK gilts respectively, arguing m…
UBS economists say the U.S. economy may be approaching a structural acceleration driven mainly by artificial intelligence investment and gains in the stock market, but they caution that growth is concentrated and vulnerable to several downside pressures including higher energy costs and tariff-related income strains.
BRB, the bank controlled by Brazil's Federal District government, intends to request a 3.3 billion reais loan from the credit guarantee fund (FGC) by month-end to support its capitalization. The move is part of a broader plan to raise 6.6 billion reais to cover losses linked to allegedly fraudulent credit portfolios purchased from Banco Master, whi…
Higher gasoline prices and swings in the stock market tied to the U.S.-Israeli military action involving Iran are raising the prospect that consumer spending across income groups will weaken. The developments risk undercutting early-year expectations that stronger refunds, a healthy labor market and asset gains would boost consumption. If oil and g…
