Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,173 total articles
US 30-year mortgage rates rose by 10 basis points to 6.19% in the week ended March 6, the largest weekly increase since September, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The uptick coincided with a sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield amid disruptions to oil flows tied to the war with Iran. Despite the rate move, purchase applicatio…
The U.S. Justice Department has begun investigating reports that Iran used the Binance cryptocurrency exchange to evade American sanctions. The probe follows the cessation of an internal Binance review that reportedly traced more than $1 billion in transactions to a network tied to Iran-backed terror groups. Authorities have contacted people with k…
A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon operated through the Taiwan Strait in international airspace, the U.S. 7th Fleet said, calling the flight a demonstration of U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The movement occurred before a scheduled visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to China this month as the two powers seek to steady relations strained …
Swiss duty-free retailer Avolta said it is premature to determine how the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will affect its business, after releasing full-year 2025 results. The company noted its limited revenue exposure in the region and cited a historically weak relationship between oil-price swings and its passenger-driven sales. Avolta also s…
Capital Economics says U.S. status as a modest net energy exporter would soften the economic impact if West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged roughly $100 per barrel for the remainder of the year. Higher fuel costs would trim non-energy consumer spending and modestly slow GDP growth, but gains in oil-producing regions would offset some of the effec…
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves told the Treasury Committee that it is too soon to quantify how the Middle East conflict will affect the UK economy. The government is assessing multiple scenarios, monitoring developments closely, and intends to protect consumers from potential fallout while balancing national security and fiscal constraints.…
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves told lawmakers it is premature to pin down how the Middle East conflict will affect UK inflation, growth or interest rates. She said officials are examining multiple scenarios, that markets remain orderly, and outlined the government's conditional stance on energy levies and consumer support.
A broadly supported bill in Congress would cut regulatory red tape to accelerate new housing supply, modernize factory-built home rules, expand financing for affordable units and prohibit large firms from buying additional single-family homes. The measure, backed across party lines and by industry groups, cleared a key Senate procedural vote and no…
Anthropic has sued to overturn a Pentagon determination that it is a national security supply chain risk, arguing the decision infringes on its First and Fifth Amendment rights and exceeded the limits of a rarely used procurement statute. Legal scholars say the case could force courts to clarify whether Section 3252 - the law invoked by the Defense…
The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% at its monetary policy assessment on Thursday, according to UBS economists Maxime Botteron and Alessandro Bee. Recent geopolitical tensions have pushed oil above $100 per barrel and driven a notable appreciation of the Swiss franc. UBS estimates suggest the two forces largely can…
U.S. equity futures moved unevenly in early trading as investors digested sharp moves in crude oil, braced for a consumer-price report later in the day, and tracked signs of stress in private-credit markets. Escalating strikes in the Middle East and a potential release of strategic oil reserves helped drive swings in energy prices, while comments f…
Oil prices have risen sharply since the start of the year amid the war in Iran, prompting markets to price modest ECB tightening. Senior European Central Bank figures this week acknowledged the inflationary risk from energy while largely arguing it is too soon to act precipitously, stressing the need to judge medium-term inflation dynamics and rema…
Germany’s economic rebound is expected to proceed in 2026 and 2027 with only a limited slowdown from recent energy price increases tied to the Iran conflict and disruptions from U.S. trade policy, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) said. DIW forecasts GDP growth of 1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 after a 0.2% gain in 2025, while projectin…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank will evaluate a range of growth and inflation scenarios at its March 19 policy meeting, noting that financial market volatility can amplify economic shocks and make forecasting more difficult. He cautioned that an energy shock could have a magnified effect on activity and ur…
U.S. equity futures were largely flat as investors navigated heightened uncertainty from the Iran conflict and digested reports that the International Energy Agency may authorize its biggest-ever release of strategic oil reserves. Brent crude has swung sharply amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz and stalled tanker traffic. Traders are also awaitin…
Turkey's Competition Authority has opened an inquiry into 65 companies operating in the audit and financial advisory sector, explicitly including the Turkish affiliates of KPMG, PwC, Deloitte and EY. The probe seeks to establish whether firms coordinated on service fees, divided client portfolios, enacted measures that could impede market entry or …
The Dutch economy entered 2026 with solid momentum driven by export strength and government consumption, but the outbreak of war in the Middle East has introduced significant uncertainty. Recent data show manufacturing and retail activity improving, and fiscal and wage gains supporting household purchasing power. However, elevated energy prices, lo…
Germany’s Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel warned that the European Central Bank will move promptly if higher energy costs stemming from the Iran war feed into sustained inflation across the euro zone. While endorsing a provisional wait-and-see stance, Nagel said the recent spike in energy prices has worsened the economic outlook and made shortfa…
Heightened military exchanges across the Middle East, fresh threats from the U.S. president and mixed signals from official sources have pushed markets to price in a longer conflict. Oil pared gains after a report the International Energy Agency had proposed an unprecedented release from strategic reserves, while currency and equities moves reflect…
A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, followed by a temporary 10% global levy, has lowered the effective tariff burden on Chinese goods and triggered contrasting responses from exporters. Some firms are frontloading shipments and dispatching technicians to the United States to lock in cheaper duties; others are reluctant to expand U.S.-bound operatio…
A March 2-9 survey of economists finds the Bank of Japan will keep its policy rate at 0.75% on March 19 but that a majority expect a rise to 1.00% by the end of June. The prospect of higher crude prices and a softer yen - linked to recent Middle East conflict - has complicated the policy outlook, though many forecasters see only a gradual path of f…
Consumer prices in the United States are expected to have risen in February, driven in part by higher gasoline costs as markets priced in a worsening Middle East conflict and by the ongoing - but uneven - pass-through of recently implemented tariffs. Core inflation measures are projected to moderate, aided by declines in used car prices and softer …
Westpac economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and again in May, taking the peak cash rate to about 4.35%. The bank's revised outlook reflects a recent surge in oil prices that could lift headline inflation temporarily, and RBA communications highlighting concerns about weak growth in…
Several leading economists and market indicators now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, driven by higher oil prices following conflict in the Middle East and a recent warning from an RBA deputy governor. Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a rise to 4.1%, while Australia’s …
Global currency markets have largely paused as traders await clearer signals on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The dollar, which rose as oil prices jumped early in the conflict, has relinquished some gains amid hopes for a quick end, but analysts and market participants remain sceptical. Central bank interest rate outlooks and near-term inflation …
