Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,101 total articles
The Bank of Canada modestly raised its forecasts for real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 in its quarterly monetary policy outlook, citing a baseline that assumes U.S. tariffs stay unchanged and oil prices gradually fall to $75 a barrel by mid-2027. The central bank projects 2026 growth at 1.2% (up from 1.1%) and 2027 growth at 1.6% (up from 1.5%). On …
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the UK economy will be roughly a335 billion smaller across 2026 and 2027 combined than it previously expected, even assuming a rapid resolution to the recent Middle East conflict. The institute has downgraded GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 and flagged higher inflation, a sl…
Iran’s currency fell to a record low of 1,810,000 rials per U.S. dollar as demand built up during six weeks of fighting suddenly entered the open market. Economic strains from export suspensions, a Gulf shipping blockade and rising inflation are tightening pressure on foreign-currency supplies, increasing the risk of further price instability and r…
Mortgage applications declined 1.6% last week as interest rates nudged higher, with the average 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.37% from 6.35%. Refinancing activity dropped 4% for the week but remains substantially above year-ago levels, while purchase applications posted a small weekly increase and were higher year over year amid greater housing in…
A government monthly economic report says India’s economy remains resilient after 7.6% real GDP growth in the prior fiscal year, but that the West Asia conflict is creating significant headwinds. The report highlights rising crude oil prices, accelerating wholesale inflation, weaker merchandise exports and potential stress on remittances and labour…
The Democratic Republic of Congo is forecast to expand by 6.2% this year, up from 5.8% last year, Central Bank Governor Andre Wameso said in Kinshasa. With $7.7 billion in foreign reserves and annual inflation at 2.36%, the bank is monitoring external risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz and global demand for raw materials. The central bank plans to …
A monthly government economic bulletin released Wednesday says India’s economy is demonstrating resilience but is increasingly exposed to spillovers from the West Asia war. The conflict has disrupted energy, fertilizer and industrial inputs, lifted costs at the producer level, weakened merchandise exports and could weigh on remittances and labour m…
Germany's EU-harmonised inflation accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in April, lifted predominantly by a 10.1% annual jump in oil and natural gas prices linked to the war-related disruption of key shipping lanes. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%, leaving broader price pressures subdued for the moment. Analysts warned …
An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz combined with extreme weather conditions and higher input costs has pushed a broad measure of crop prices to the strongest level since November 2023. Tightening fertilizer availability and reduced planting in several producing regions have elevated prices for staple commodities such as wheat and corn, rai…
SoFi Technologies posted a first-quarter profit that doubled year-over-year as record loan originations and membership expansion drove revenue gains. Total loan originations reached $12.2 billion, member count rose 35% to 14.7 million, and adjusted revenue climbed to a record $1.1 billion. The results come as lenders see stronger loan demand despit…
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the United States rose by 2 basis points to 6.37% for the week ended April 24, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Overall mortgage applications fell 1.6%, weighed down by a 4% decline in refinancing, even as purchase applications climbed 2% during the traditional spring buying season. Lenders repo…
Sberbank has reduced its projection for Russia’s 2026 gross domestic product growth to between 0.5% and 1% from a prior 1% to 1.5%, following a challenging first quarter marked by contractions in January and February. The lender pointed to tight monetary conditions and sectoral weakness in mining, manufacturing, retail and construction, and project…
Ireland's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded a 3.6% annual increase in April, unchanged from March, with monthly prices up 0.4%. Core inflation slowed to 2.3%. Separate preliminary figures show GDP falling 2.0% quarter-on-quarter and 6.0% year-on-year in the first quarter. Retail sales volumes rose modestly in March and February da…
The European Commission has approved a temporary framework to expand state aid for businesses facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs after oil prices rose when the Strait of Hormuz was closed amid the Iran war. The measures, valid until the end of the year, allow compensation of up to 70% of extra costs for agriculture, fishery and transport firms…
Federal Reserve officials last convened just after the U.S.-led war on Iran began and had limited evidence beyond a sharp rise in gasoline prices to judge its economic implications. In the weeks since, incoming data have clarified some trends - most notably higher headline inflation - while leaving core elements of the Fed’s policy calculus, such a…
The Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, setting up a full Senate confirmation vote expected the week of May 11. The move comes as Jerome Powell chairs what is widely anticipated to be his final policy meeting and as questions persist about the future composition of the Fe…
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, with officials debating whether to warn that rising energy costs could push underlying inflation higher. Elevated global oil prices tied to the U.S.-led conflict with Iran have renewed concerns that a temporary energy shock could require interest …
Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair, bookended by nominations from different presidents and marked by both market turbulence and bold crisis response, appears to be drawing to a close. His leadership encompassed early friction with President Donald Trump over rate increases, a sweeping and unconventional Fed reaction to the COVID-19 shock…
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25% on April 29 while publishing fresh forecasts in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The projections will be the first since the February 28 onset of the Iran war, an event that has pushed crude and gasoline prices higher and prompted scrutiny over whether the shock will broade…
The Kremlin said Russia will remain a member of OPEC+ after the United Arab Emirates announced its departure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the UAE’s move as a sovereign choice Russia respects, while stressing Moscow’s hope that the development does not mark the end of the OPEC+ arrangement. Russia welcomed the UAE’s pledge to keep coor…
The Asian Development Bank has cut its growth forecasts for developing Asia and the Pacific and raised its inflation outlook, citing the economic ripple effects of the war in the Middle East. The bank warns that further escalation and sustained oil-price shocks could deepen the slowdown and push inflation substantially higher, while urging central …
Investors have established the largest short yen exposure in nearly two years, selling the currency against several major peers and creating a fresh challenge for Japan’s willingness to defend the yen. The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged, combined with negative real interest rates and steady rhetoric from Tokyo that has not …
Federal Reserve policy takes center stage as the FOMC meets on a day when Jerome Powell appears set to relinquish the chairmanship. The Senate is expected to vote on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as discussions focus on the Fed’s independence, the bank's internal divisions and how the next leadership will handle White House pressure for rate cuts. Mar…
The U.S. president has instructed aides to ready plans for an extended blockade of Iran aimed at constricting oil exports and curbing shipping, with officials framing the approach as a less risky alternative to renewed heavy military action or a swift diplomatic exit. The move follows a ceasefire that paused major bombing but left regional tensions…
The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly as market participants prepared for a closely watched Federal Reserve policy decision likely to mark the end of Jerome Powell's term as chair. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and fading hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution kept safe-haven demand intact. Currencies traded in narrow ranges in subdued Asian…
