Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,608 total articles
The first quarter has closed on a turbulent note as global financial markets absorbed a severe geopolitical shock in the Middle East alongside large moves in energy prices and interest rates. An estimated $7 trillion was wiped from global equity markets, oil posted one of its largest quarterly gains of the century, European gas prices nearly double…
Morgan Stanley warned that rising crude costs tied to the Middle East conflict could move from primarily lifting inflation to damaging economic growth if price gains become sharp enough. Analysts led by Michael Gapen say the bank is watching retail sales excluding gasoline, upcoming March payroll data, business confidence measures and inflation-lin…
Marcopolo is leaning on international markets to make up for a softer outlook at home in 2026, boosting exports across Latin America and preparing a push into European markets. International operations accounted for nearly half of the company's net revenue in 2025, and executives say they are seeing momentum in multiple neighboring countries while …
Early economic effects from the Iran war are surfacing in Britain, with surging gas prices and downgrades to growth and inflation forecasts constraining both monetary and fiscal policymakers. The combination of higher energy costs, falling consumer confidence, and limited fiscal headroom raises difficult trade-offs for the Bank of England and the g…
The Bank of Spain estimates first-quarter GDP rose between 0.5% and 0.6%, a deceleration from 0.8% in Q4. It raised its baseline growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from 2.2%, factoring in the economic effects of the war in Iran. The central bank also adjusted inflation and public finance projections while noting that energy price and external market …
China’s commerce minister told the European Union’s trade commissioner that Beijing is prepared to increase imports from the 27-member bloc and urged the EU to relax controls on high-tech exports and avoid politicising trade relations, according to a statement from China’s commerce ministry. The exchange took place on the sidelines of a World Trade…
The Philippines and China convened formal talks on their South China Sea dispute in Quanzhou for the first time in over a year, holding two bilateral meetings to pursue candid exchanges and examine cooperation in non-sensitive areas. The sessions followed signals from Manila about potential collaboration on a joint oil and gas project and requests …
U.S. stock index futures showed little momentum on March 27 as investors weighed a further delay in planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran rejected a 15-point U.S. proposal to end hostilities. The pause did not calm markets: oil prices rose, g…
UK house prices are projected to rise modestly in 2026 as easing monetary policy and nominal wage growth improve affordability. Mortgage rates have come down from their 2022 peaks and lenders are repricing in anticipation of further Bank of England cuts, but weak economic indicators, higher energy costs and policy changes for landlords create short…
Next week’s U.S. employment report will be the focal point for investors already grappling with the market effects of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil and gasoline prices, rising Treasury yields and mixed corporate earnings have combined to push equity valuations lower and keep markets volatile as the first quarter ends.
Fulton County will ask a federal judge to order the return of original 2020 ballots and other materials that FBI agents removed during a January 28 search of the county's election center in Union City, Georgia. County lawyers argue the seizure - which included more than 600 boxes of election material - was constitutionally improper and relied on al…
Israel and Iran exchanged new air strikes while reports indicate the United States is weighing a major increase in ground forces to the Middle East. President Trump extended a White House deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to April 6, saying Tehran requested the extension and that talks are ongoing, a claim Tehran denies. Oil prices h…
Global equity funds recorded their biggest weekly net inflow in nearly 2-1/2 months in the week through March 25, driven by hopes of a temporary easing in Middle East tensions after a White House decision to delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Net purchases were concentrated in U.S. and Asian equity funds, while European equity funds sa…
UBS economists have updated their outlook for European Central Bank policy, forecasting two 25 basis point hikes that would raise the deposit rate to 2.5% - one on June 11 and a second in September. The change follows a more hawkish tone in the ECB's March staff projections, which revised inflation materially higher while trimming GDP growth only m…
U.S. equity futures traded close to unchanged after the White House extended a deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. President Trump said Tehran requested the delay and that talks are ongoing, but clashes across the Middle East have persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Brent crude rose further w…
A European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey released March 27 shows euro-area households lowered their median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and the following three years to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, while expectations five years ahead held at 2.3%. The ECB noted that 97% of responses were collected before the st…
The close of the first quarter has left global markets reeling from geopolitically driven shocks. A war involving Iran and a U.S. ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz has coincided with record energy price swings, a steep drawdown in equities, surging input costs and heightened volatility across assets. Investors will now face a dense calendar - fro…
The Bank of England has restructured the Discount Window Facility (DWF) pricing, setting fixed spreads above Bank Rate by collateral tier and lowering charges across the board. The move is intended to make the DWF a more usable, on-demand liquidity option for firms facing short-term settlement gaps, while preserving incentives for prudent liquidity…
European stocks fell on Friday as investors wrestled with uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has raised inflation fears and cast doubt on global growth. The STOXX 600 edged down 0.2% to 579.71 by 0816 GMT, led lower by a 1.4% drop in media shares. Market volatility marked the week, with the benchmark briefly off 10% from its …
Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said the ECB should not hurry to raise interest rates in response to recent energy-driven headline inflation. He argued that the bank's baseline projection - with inflation peaking above 3% in the second quarter and returning to target a year later - still holds. P…
Global markets have been swept by a severe selloff since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing oil above $100 a barrel, driving Treasury yields sharply higher and leaving few traditional safe havens intact. Fund managers, traders and bankers from Shanghai to New York report sleepless nights and frantic portfolio adjustments as t…
On March 27 the Bank of Japan published an updated staff estimate of Japan's natural rate of interest, placing it at roughly -0.9% to +0.5% - a range largely unchanged from the prior -1.0% to +0.5% estimate. The BOJ noted that while the overall range is similar, many individual estimates have in recent months edged higher, reflecting in part a rise…
France's public sector deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, according to INSEE, an improvement on the previous year and better than the government's latest estimate. The statistics office also reported a rise in the public debt ratio to 115.6% of GDP in 2025. Paris is aiming to reduce the deficit to 5.0% this year and to return to the EU 3% cei…
Equity futures and oil prices showed muted moves after U.S. President delayed planned strikes on Iranian power stations for a further 10 days. Global markets remain on edge as signs of persistent inflation and central-bank pivoting prompt re-priced rate expectations, even as fresh reports of additional U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East incr…
A widening list of Asia-Pacific governments have announced measures to reassure financial markets and shore up liquidity as the extended U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran exacerbates currency weakness and market turbulence. Actions range from large-scale bond buybacks and supplementary budgets to fuel subsidies, central bank reviews and temporary …
