Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,212 total articles
Goldman Sachs argues that recent market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following the Iran conflict overstate the risk that rising oil prices will force tighter U.S. monetary policy. Analyst Manuel Abecasis points to a narrower supply shock, a less oil-dependent economy, easing labor market pressures, anchored inflation expectations, and already…
Mortgage rates on the widely used 30-year fixed loan rose 14 basis points last week to 6.57%, the highest reading since August, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The jump follows a spike in oil prices tied to the United States and Israel's war on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted Treasury yields and pushed borrowing …
Bank of America has trimmed its projection for global growth in 2026 and raised its inflation outlook after assessing the economic impact of the Iran war as a "mild stagflation" shock. The bank cut its global growth forecast by 40 basis points to 3.1% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast by 90 basis points to 3.3%. It also expects monetary pol…
Turkey has requested Iranian authorization for 11 Turkish-owned ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to state-run Anadolu. Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said 14 Turkish-owned vessels remain in the strait, with three engaged in operations and not seeking departure. Iran has effectively blocked the waterway sin…
New-vehicle purchases in the United States are forecast to decline in the first quarter of 2026 as elevated borrowing costs, strong vehicle prices and the expiration of certain EV incentives dent buyer activity. Industry forecaster Cox Automotive projects a 6.5% year-on-year drop in Q1 sales and a 2.6% decline for the year. Rising oil prices tied t…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said a protracted war in the Middle East increases the likelihood of a more persistent period of higher prices in the euro area, potentially moving the economy closer to the staff's adverse scenario. He noted energy prices are currently between the baseline and adverse projections and …
Ryanair's chief executive cautioned that ongoing hostilities in the Middle East could put as much as 25% of the airline's jet fuel supply at risk during May and June. The warning, delivered on Sky News, echoes broader industry concerns: the International Air Transport Association estimates a significant share of Europe’s aviation fuel originates fr…
Flavio Bolsonaro’s ascent in simulated match-up polls with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has given his campaign leeway to defer the formal unveiling of an economic policy team. The senator, who has been campaigning abroad and visiting his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, has signaled a platform broadly aligned with his father’s economic a…
Faced with new U.S. levies on European wines, a Brooklyn wine retailer is sourcing fine French and Italian bottles already stored in the United States and selling them through internet auctions to sidestep import tariffs. The approach reflects broader industry shifts as wineries, restaurants and merchants adapt to changing trade rules and renewed t…
The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee says the recent Middle East conflict has produced a substantial shock to the global economy, driving large moves in energy markets and creating heightened volatility across financial markets. The committee highlighted sharp increases in oil and gas prices, significant moves in UK government bond yiel…
U.S. stock futures gained after global markets rallied on comments from President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting the Iran conflict could be nearing an end. Boosted by hopes of restored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major European and Asian indices climbed, oil prices fell about 3%, and risk-sensitive assets rall…
Newly appointed Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada cautioned that the war in Iran and the associated jump in crude oil prices could create stagflationary conditions in Japan. Speaking at his inaugural news conference after joining the nine-member board, Asada said inflation has replaced deflation as the immediate concern and that relying sol…
British manufacturers reported a marked rise in input costs and lengthening delivery delays in March, linked to elevated oil and gas prices and shipping routes avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. The final S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0, with the output gauge slipping into contraction at 49.2. Employment readings weakened further and firms…
U.S. equity futures rose as markets parsed signals that the United States may be preparing to step back from its campaign in Iran. Oil retreated below $100 a barrel, easing from the spike seen after the conflict began, while gold extended gains and select corporate earnings and energy deal talk drew investor attention. The trading day reflected a m…
Euro zone manufacturing registered its most robust monthly expansion in almost four years in March, according to the S&P Global PMI, as delivery delays linked to Middle East hostilities inflated headline growth. Despite gains in production and a stabilisation of export orders, demand indicators remain subdued and input cost inflation has jumped to …
An ECB policymaker warned that the euro zone economy may already be following the central bank’s outlined 'adverse' path, with energy-driven inflation potentially becoming entrenched faster than during the 2022 spike. Officials will monitor incoming data ahead of the April 30 meeting, but if high energy costs spread through the broader economy and …
Global markets rallied as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a possible end to U.S. military strikes on Iran within two to three weeks boosted risk sentiment. Asia-Pacific equities led gains, with MSCI's index outside Japan jumping 4.3% and South Korea's Kospi surging as much as 7.7% after strong export and manufacturing data. Inv…
A private survey found that new-home prices across 100 Chinese cities rose modestly in March, reversing a small downturn in February. The China Index Academy attributed the uptick to a seasonal pickup in demand in major cities and increased supply of higher-quality projects in core urban markets. Observers warn that weak employment, high inventory …
A private-sector PMI compiled by S&P Global found China's factory sector expanded for a fourth month in March, with continued gains in output and new orders. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.8 from 52.1 in February, and firms reported sharply higher input costs and output prices amid supply strains tied to the Middle East…
Arab officials say the United Arab Emirates is preparing to support U.S. and allied efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force and is seeking a U.N. Security Council resolution to authorize such an operation. Emirati diplomats are reported to be urging American, European and Asian partners to form a coalition to restore passage as Tehran has e…
South Korea's manufacturing sector recorded its most robust expansion since February 2022 in March, driven by semiconductor demand and new product releases, the S&P Global purchasing managers index showed. While domestic momentum and product cycles supported output gains, export orders slowed as the Middle East war weighed on overseas demand. Input…
The International Monetary Fund has reached staff-level loan accords that would allow Papua New Guinea to access roughly $216 million once the arrangements receive approval. The package spans reviews under the extended credit facility, the extended fund facility and the resilience and sustainability facility, and follows an IMF mission to Port More…
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will prioritize enforcement against potential insider trading in prediction markets and manipulative conduct in energy markets, the agency's new enforcement director said in his first public remarks since taking the post. The CFTC will also concentrate on spoofing and willful violations of anti-money-la…
The Low Pay Commission has proposed that Britain’s national minimum wage may need to increase by about 3.7% in 2027 to keep pace with expected average earnings growth, projecting a central rate of 13.18 pounds an hour while opening an annual consultation with employers, unions and the public. The projection is provisional and the commission said th…
The Department of Homeland Security has put on hold plans to repurpose large warehouses for immigrant detention while newly appointed Secretary Markwayne Mullin reviews a controversial program initiated under Kristi Noem. Documents show the prior plan called for $38.3 billion in spending by year-end to establish detention centers to hold and proces…
