Economy June 9, 2026 07:26 AM

JPMorgan Poll Shows Slight Uptick in Treasury Note Bullishness

Weekly client survey records higher net long exposure overall even as active trader conviction softens

By Nina Shah
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JPMorgan’s weekly client survey, published Monday, found a modest rise in the net percentage of investors holding long positions in Treasury notes to 20% from 18% a week earlier. While a greater share of the full client base expects prices to rise, active clients are more divided and their net long exposure has fallen materially from the prior week.

JPMorgan Poll Shows Slight Uptick in Treasury Note Bullishness
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Key Points

  • Net percentage of all clients holding long Treasury note positions rose to 20% from 18% week-over-week.
  • Across all clients, 31% expect prices to increase, 58% expect no change, and 11% expect a decrease; the survey index was 0.78 for the week of June 8.
  • Active clients are more conflicted: 44% expect increases, 23% expect no change, 33% expect decreases, with a net long of 11%, down from 22% the prior week - this is relevant to Treasury market and fixed-income investor positioning.

JPMorgan’s weekly client survey, released Monday, indicates a small increase in bullish positioning among investors in Treasury notes. The net percentage of all surveyed clients holding long positions rose to 20% this week from 18% in the prior week.

Breaking down expectations across the full client sample, 31% of respondents foresee Treasury note prices moving higher, 58% expect prices to remain unchanged, and 11% anticipate prices will fall. The survey’s index was recorded at 0.78 for the week of June 8, a touch below the 0.79 value reported in the prior week.

Positioning among active clients diverged from the broader pool. Within that cohort, 44% anticipate price gains, 23% expect stability, and 33% predict price declines. The net long position for active clients stood at 11% this week, down from 22% in the week before.

JPMorgan also reported four-week averages to provide additional context on positioning. Across all clients, the four-week average net long position is 17%. Active clients show a higher four-week average net long position of 20%.

The report details its calculations for transparency: the survey index is computed as shorts plus neutrals divided by longs plus neutrals. The net figure cited in the results represents the percentage-point difference between the share of investors expecting Treasury note prices to increase and the share expecting them to decrease.

The data present a mixed picture. On aggregate, a slightly larger portion of the survey population has increased long exposure week-over-week, but active traders have cut their net long stance by half relative to the prior week. The figures for expectations and the index provide a snapshot of client sentiment for the week of June 8.

Risks

  • Divergence between the broader client base and active clients - active clients pared net long exposure from 22% to 11%, introducing uncertainty about conviction among market participants; this may affect short-term Treasury trading dynamics.
  • High proportion of respondents (58%) expecting no price change suggests limited directional conviction across the survey population, which could translate into fragile positioning if market conditions shift.
  • The slight decline in the survey index to 0.78 from 0.79 indicates minimal movement in the overall balance of expectations, leaving room for rapid sentiment reversals if new data or events occur.

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