Economy June 23, 2026 01:14 AM

India private-sector expansion cools in June as demand softens and confidence wanes

Flash PMI shows slowdown across services and manufacturing, with hiring and price pressures easing

By Priya Menon
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India's private sector growth eased in June to its weakest pace in three months, driven by softer new orders and falling business confidence. HSBC's flash composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, slipped to 57.4 from 59.3 in May, with both services and manufacturing readings declining. Employment gains were marginal, cost pressures continued to moderate, and exporters saw a mixed picture between services and goods producers.

India private-sector expansion cools in June as demand softens and confidence wanes
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Key Points

  • HSBC-S&P Global flash composite PMI fell to 57.4 in June from 59.3 in May, indicating slower private-sector expansion.
  • Services PMI dropped to a 17-month low of 57.3 and manufacturing PMI eased to a three-month low of 54.5, reflecting cooling activity in both sectors.
  • Employment gains were marginal in June and price pressures continued to moderate, as costs fell to their lowest since January and selling price inflation slowed.

India's private-sector activity lost momentum in June, with a flash survey pointing to the slowest expansion in three months as demand cooled across both services and manufacturing. Firms also reported weaker confidence, which fell to its lowest level since January.

HSBC's flash India Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dropped to 57.4 in June from 59.3 in May. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in activity.

New business softened: overall new orders increased at their slowest rate since March. Companies attributed the moderation in demand to competitive pressures and interruptions related to gas shortages, which they said hampered efforts to secure new work.

Export trends diverged between sectors. Services firms recorded slightly faster growth in international sales in June, while manufacturers logged their weakest rise in new export orders since March 2023.

The services PMI fell to a 17-month low of 57.3 in June, down from 59.8 in May. Manufacturing eased to a three-month low of 54.5, a decline from 55.0 the previous month. Both subindices therefore remained above the 50.0 threshold that denotes expansion, but at reduced rates.

Demand moderation translated into weaker hiring momentum. Employment across the private sector rose only marginally in June - the smallest gain in the current six-month sequence of expansion - with recruitment at both factories and service providers at their lowest levels since December.

Price dynamics continued to cool. Cost pressures eased for a third consecutive month, slipping to their lowest reading since January. Selling price inflation also moderated: overall charges increased at the slowest pace in six months as some firms held back from passing higher costs onto customers amid the softer demand environment.

Sentiment lost traction in June, sliding below its long-run average. Business confidence among goods producers weakened to its lowest point in nearly four years.


Analytical note - The survey's readings point to a broad-based deceleration within the private sector in June, with demand, hiring and pricing trends all showing signs of moderation while growth nevertheless remained in expansionary territory according to the PMI metrics provided.

Risks

  • Slower new order growth - New orders rose at their slowest pace since March, which could pressure factory and services activity if the trend continues (impacts manufacturing and services sectors).
  • Supply constraints - Firms cited gas shortages as an obstacle to securing business, presenting a short-term disruption risk for production-oriented firms (impacts manufacturing and industrial supply chains).
  • Weaker business confidence - Sentiment slipped below its long-run average and was weakest among goods producers in nearly four years, creating uncertainty for investment and hiring decisions (impacts capital expenditure and labour markets).

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