Currencies June 19, 2026 02:17 AM

UK posts far larger-than-expected May budget shortfall

May borrowing hits £23.3 billion as growth outlook weakens and borrowing costs rise

By Avery Klein
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The Office for National Statistics reported a May budget deficit of £23.3 billion, 30% higher than a year earlier and above economists' median expectations. Earlier forecasts for the 2026/27 fiscal year envisaged a narrower deficit, but a weaker growth outlook and rising borrowing costs have altered the picture. Recent gilt sales showed the highest yields in decades, and the government faces mounting difficulty funding extra defence commitments within existing budget rules.

UK posts far larger-than-expected May budget shortfall
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Key Points

  • May budget deficit stood at £23.3 billion, up 30% year-on-year and larger than the median economist forecast of £18.5 billion.
  • The March forecast from the government's budget watchdog expected a £115.5 billion deficit for 2026/27, equal to 3.6% of national income, down from 4.3% in 2025/26; since then growth prospects have weakened and borrowing costs have risen.
  • Government bond sales showed yields at the highest levels since at least 1998 when £9 billion of 15-year debt was sold; difficulty financing extra defence spending within existing budget rules prompted the resignation of defence minister John Healey.

LONDON, June 19 - Britain recorded a budget deficit of £23.3 billion in May, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. The shortfall marked a 30% increase compared with the same month a year earlier and exceeded the median forecast of economists polled, who had expected a deficit of £18.5 billion for May.

Earlier this year, in March, the government's independent budget watchdog projected a deficit of £115.5 billion for the 2026/27 financial year. That estimate equated to 3.6% of national income, a decline from the 4.3% recorded in 2025/26. Since that March projection, the outlook for economic growth has weakened and the cost of borrowing has risen, developments that have altered the fiscal backdrop.

The market reaction to the rising cost of debt has been evident in recent gilt auctions. Last week the government sold £9 billion of 15-year debt at yields described as the highest since at least 1998, reflecting tighter financing conditions for public borrowing.

Beyond the numerical outcomes, fiscal management faces political and budgetary strain. The government is reported to be struggling to accommodate additional defence spending within current budget rules and pre-existing commitments to other departments. That tension culminated in the resignation of defence minister John Healey last week, who stepped down in protest over the handling of defence funding.

For currency reference, the exchange rate reported in the data was $1 = 0.7582 pounds.


Context and implications

The larger-than-expected May deficit, the downgraded growth outlook and higher borrowing costs combine to create a more challenging fiscal environment than was envisioned in the March projection. The recent gilt sale at elevated yields underscores pressure in debt markets. Separately, the difficulty of financing additional defence commitments within existing fiscal rules has produced a notable political repercussion.

Data limitations: the figures and statements above reflect the reported May outturn and the March forecast. No further projections or causal conclusions beyond the published figures are offered here.

Risks

  • Weaker growth outlook could increase fiscal pressure and raise borrowing needs, affecting the public finances and government debt markets.
  • Rising borrowing costs, as seen in the recent high-yield gilt sale, may make financing deficits more expensive for the government and influence bond market conditions.
  • Inability to fund additional defence commitments within current budget rules risks further political fallout and could force reallocation of departmental spending, affecting public-sector budgets.

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