Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
518 total articles
The British pound has strengthened against the dollar over the past month despite domestic economic challenges, with Bank of America attributing the move to shifts in terms of trade, portfolio positioning and energy-sector flows rather than a sudden improvement in underlying fundamentals. Analysts note a break in the historical relationship between…
Bank of America warns that sustained high crude prices, combined with a divergence between the Bank of Japan's wait-and-see approach and the tightening tendencies of the Federal Reserve and some European central banks, is weighing on the Japanese yen. The research note highlights Japan's reliance on Middle Eastern crude, political pressure for stim…
Asian exchange rates fell broadly Monday as the dollar climbed to a three-month peak amid a surge in oil prices following an escalation in hostilities involving Iran and strikes on regional oil infrastructure. The Chinese yuan weakened despite consumer inflation printing at its strongest pace in three years, supported by elevated holiday spending. …
UBS recommends selling upside exposure in the EUR/ZAR pair above 20.50 over a one-month horizon, citing heightened implied volatility and a set of supportive factors underpinning the South African rand. The bank notes the currency's resilience is driven by precious metal gains, favorable yield differentials, attractive valuation and structural refo…
Bank of America has recommended a tactical buy on the euro versus the Norwegian krone, citing crowded short positioning in the pair and a view that Norway's interest-rate outlook could shift. The bank's metrics show EUR/NOK short exposure is high based on a one-year volatility lookback, and its base case assumes no prolonged conflict involving Iran…
UBS has advised taking a long position in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar at 0.6990, setting a profit target at 0.75 and a stop-loss at 0.68. The bank says the recent depreciation in AUD/USD - linked to heightened risk-aversion - creates an entry point. UBS points to widening short-term interest rate differentials between Australia and…
The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Friday but remained poised for its largest weekly advance since November 2024 as the widening conflict in the Middle East boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Traders pared some positions ahead of U.S. payrolls data due later in the session. Currency moves were also influenced by rising energy costs and regional e…
Most Asian currencies firmed slightly on Friday as the U.S. dollar eased modestly after a prior run-up, yet the region remains poised for weekly losses. Escalating hostilities involving Iran, Israel and the United States have pushed oil prices sharply higher this week, heightening concerns over energy supply disruptions and reigniting inflation and…
Analysts at BofA Securities say the U.S. dollar's recent appreciation stems largely from an oil price shock tied to escalating strikes involving Iran, rather than from a breakdown in investor confidence in the U.S. government. The bank's strategists note the dollar's gains extend even against traditional safe havens such as gold, and they expect th…
Sterling has outperformed the euro this week, driven largely by portfolio positioning and a repricing at the short end of the curve that reduces expectations for near-term Bank of England easing. ING highlights the role of widespread net short sterling and long euro positions held by asset managers, and warns that renewed bond market stress or high…
The U.S. dollar resumed gains Thursday after a brief retreat, supported by renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East and a jump in oil prices. The Dollar Index traded at 98.897 at 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), extending its move back toward this week’s three-month peak. U.S. political and military developments, signals of slowing U.S. activity in the Fe…
Most Asian currencies retreated Thursday as the U.S. dollar firmed after a modest overnight pullback and heightened conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. The US Dollar Index posted a small gain, while traders monitored developments near key shipping lanes and the impact of surging crude on trade balances and inflation. The Indian ru…
A sudden shift in global risk sentiment on hopes for resumed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and potential U.S.-Iran engagement triggered a rally in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, reversing earlier losses. The Aussie rose to $0.7078 after a 0.6% overnight rebound from lower levels this week, while the kiwi held at $0.5940 follow…
The U.S. dollar’s recent surge slowed on Thursday as investors digested conflicting reports about possible talks between Iranian intelligence operatives and the CIA and upbeat U.S. services data. The dollar slipped from an early-week peak, giving the euro and several other major currencies tentative relief, while energy-driven inflation concerns co…
Citi said it trimmed risk across a range of macro positions after an abrupt volatility spike tied to geopolitical developments. The bank described the market moves as resembling a VAR shock, closed its long EURUSD spot position after hitting drawdown limits, took profits on EM FX carry positions and exited certain EM receivers and a long gilt-versu…
The U.S. dollar remained at elevated levels on Wednesday amid renewed concerns over energy supply after strikes involving the U.S., Israel and Iran raised the prospect of prolonged disruption via the Strait of Hormuz. The Dollar Index eased slightly to 98.995 at 04:55 ET (09:55 GMT) after earlier reaching its strongest level since November 28. Risi…
UBS Switzerland AG projects the British pound against the Swiss franc to remain constrained in the near term before staging a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. Strategists Constantin Bolz and Clémence Dumoncel point to the Bank of England's easing cycle and UK political uncertainty as headwinds for sterling, while safe-have…
Most Asian currencies weakened on Wednesday as an escalation in the Middle East conflict drove oil prices sharply higher and supported a broadly stronger U.S. dollar. The Indian rupee hit a fresh record low as rising crude import costs and capital outflows pressured the currency. Other regional rates from the Korean won to the Chinese yuan and the …
Heightened conflict in the Middle East has driven energy prices higher and prompted investors to seek cash, sending the U.S. dollar to a three-month peak and nudging the euro lower for a third day. The price surge in crude and European gas, along with renewed concerns about inflation, are influencing FX and risk assets across markets.
Blockchain research firms observed a sharp increase in funds leaving Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges in the hours after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Chainalysis, Elliptic and TRM reported hourly spikes in outflows, with total movements of more than $10 million between Saturday and Monday. Analysts said the data illustrate crypto's expanding r…
Bank of America Securities says the U.S. dollar has reasserted its role as the preferred safe-haven currency during the recent Middle East tensions that have disrupted oil markets. The bank cites the United States' energy self-sufficiency and option-market signals showing a shift toward dollar demand, while noting the Canadian dollar also typically…
Analysts warn that the escalation of the conflict involving Iran and a consequent rise in oil prices could create strains across emerging markets that extend beyond inflationary effects to include wider current account deteriorations, currency weakness and heightened capital outflows. Brokerages project Brent could top $100 if the conflict persists…
The U.S. dollar strengthened further on Tuesday as widening conflict across the Middle East renewed safe-haven demand for the greenback. The Dollar Index rose to its highest level since January, while the euro, sterling and commodity-linked currencies weakened amid a jump in energy prices and signs that central banks and governments may intervene t…
Asian currencies largely weakened on Tuesday as an intensifying Middle East conflict and higher energy prices bolstered demand for the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index held near a five-week peak after overnight gains, while the South Korean won and Indian rupee were among the biggest decliners amid concerns about widening regional instability and…
Bank of America expects a broad-based rally in the U.S. dollar following the latest escalation in the Middle East and identifies the New Zealand dollar (NZD) as its preferred short in that scenario. Strategists point to New Zealand's growing reliance on imported fuels and an outsized sensitivity of NZD to risk assets, arguing these structural and e…
