Barclays has raised its year-end projection for the Peruvian sol to 3.30 against the U.S. dollar, pointing to early presidential runoff results and what it describes as a solid external position for Peru.
Preliminary tallies from the presidential runoff indicate a probable victory for Keiko Fujimori, a right-wing candidate, though those results have not been formally certified. Barclays notes markets are assigning a high probability to her eventual win. That market view is reflected in recent appreciation of the sol and in central bank foreign-exchange operations, where authorities have intervened by purchasing dollars.
The bank warns that a late swing in favor of Fujimori 's opponent, Pedro Sánchez, would likely provoke a negative market response. Barclays cites Sánchez 's support for a more interventionist policy approach and proposals to convene a constitutional assembly as reasons such an outcome would raise questions about policy predictability and institutional stability.
Beyond these near-term political dynamics, Barclays highlights Peru 's strong external position as a continued anchor for the sol. The bank points to elevated copper prices and a sizeable trade surplus as supporting factors for that external strength.
On that basis, Barclays expects the sol to strengthen toward 3.30 per dollar by year-end once political uncertainty eases. The forecast reflects the bank 's assessment that current market pricing, exchange-rate intervention and external balances together underpin the currency outlook.
Investors and market participants will be watching both the certification process for the runoff and incoming data on copper and trade balances, as these elements are central to Barclays 's revised projection.